Unemployment and Portfolio Choice: Does Persistence Matter?
We use a life cycle model of consumption and portfolio choice to study the effects of social security on the investment decisions of households for the European case. Our model is mainly based on the one developed by Cocco, Gomes, and Maenhout (2005). We extend it by unemployment risk using Markov chains to model the transition between different employment states. In contrast to most models in the life cycle literature, our model allows for three different states, namely employment, short-term as well as long-term unemployment. This allows us to examine the effects of persistence in the unemployment process on portfolio choice. Our main findings are, first, that in case of short-term unemployment only, social security systems as those established in the EU are able to offset the negative impact of unemployment risk on the portfolio-share invested in risky assets. Second, the simulation results reveal that when allowing for long-term unemployment the equity-share is suppressed, especially for young investors. We show that this negative effect of unemployment is mainly driven by its persistence.
|Date of creation:||2010|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Mohrenstraße 58, D-10117 Berlin|
Web page: http://www.diw.de/en
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Merton, Robert C, 1969. "Lifetime Portfolio Selection under Uncertainty: The Continuous-Time Case," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(3), pages 247-57, August.
- Francisco J. Gomes & Alexander Michaelides, 2003.
"Portfolio choice with internal habit formation : a life-cycle model with uninsurable labor income risk,"
LSE Research Online Documents on Economics
196, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Francisco Gomes & Alexander Michaelides, 2003. "Portfolio Choice With Internal Habit Formation: A Life-Cycle Model With Uninsurable Labor Income Risk," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(4), pages 729-766, October.
- Gomes, Francisco J & Michaelides, Alexander, 2003. "Portfolio Choice with Internal Habit Formation: A Life-Cycle Model with Uninsurable Labour Income Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 3868, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Jonathan A. Parker, 2002.
"Consumption Over the Life Cycle,"
Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 47-89, January.
- Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Jonathan A. Parker, 1999. "Consumption Over the Life Cycle," NBER Working Papers 7271, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gourinchas, P.O. & Parker, J.A., 1997. "Consumption Over the Life Cycle," Working papers 9722, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Parker, Jonathan A, 2000. "Consumption Over the Life-Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 2345, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Carroll, Christopher D. & Samwick, Andrew A., 1997.
"The nature of precautionary wealth,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 41-71, September.
- Guiso, Luigi & Jappelli, Tullio & Terlizzese, Daniele, 1996.
"Income Risk, Borrowing Constraints, and Portfolio Choice,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 86(1), pages 158-72, March.
- Guiso, Luigi & Jappelli, Tullio & Terlizzese, Daniele, 1994. "Income Risk, Borrowing Constraints and Portfolio Choice," CEPR Discussion Papers 888, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Raimond Maurer & Olivia S. Mitchell & Ralph Rogalla, 2010. "The Effect of Uncertain Labor Income and Social Security on Life-cycle Portfolios," NBER Working Papers 15682, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Christopher D. Carroll, 2005.
"The Method of Endogenous Gridpoints for Solving Dynamic Stochastic Optimization Problems,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0309, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Carroll, Christopher D., 2006. "The method of endogenous gridpoints for solving dynamic stochastic optimization problems," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 91(3), pages 312-320, June.
- Christopher Carroll, 2005. "The Method of Endogenous Gridpoints for Solving Dynamic Stochastic Optimization Problems," Economics Working Paper Archive 520, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
- Carroll, Christopher D., 2005. "The method of endogenous gridpoints for solving dynamic stochastic optimization problems," CFS Working Paper Series 2005/18, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- Luca Benzoni & Pierre Collin-Dufresne & Robert S. Goldstein, 2007.
"Portfolio Choice over the Life-Cycle when the Stock and Labor Markets Are Cointegrated,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 62(5), pages 2123-2167, October.
- Luca Benzoni & Pierre Collin-Dufresne & Robert S. Goldstein, 2007. "Portfolio choice over the life-cycle when the stock and labor markets are cointegrated," Working Paper Series WP-07-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Valery Polkovnichenko, 2007. "Life-Cycle Portfolio Choice with Additive Habit Formation Preferences and Uninsurable Labor Income Risk," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(1), pages 83-124, January.
- R. C. Merton, 1970.
"Optimum Consumption and Portfolio Rules in a Continuous-time Model,"
58, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Merton, Robert C., 1971. "Optimum consumption and portfolio rules in a continuous-time model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 373-413, December.
- Campbell, John Y. & Viceira, Luis M., 2002. "Strategic Asset Allocation: Portfolio Choice for Long-Term Investors," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198296942, December.
- Engen, Eric M. & Gruber, Jonathan, 2001. "Unemployment insurance and precautionary saving," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 545-579, June.
- Sánchez Martín, A. & Jiménez Martín, S. & Robalino, D. & Todeschini, F., 2012. "Labor Income and the Design of Default Portfolios in Mandatory Pension Systems: An Application to Chile," Working Papers 2012-04, FEDEA.
- Zvi Bodie & Robert C. Merton & William F. Samuelson, 1992.
"Labor Supply Flexibility and Portfolio Choice in a Life-Cycle Model,"
NBER Working Papers
3954, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bodie, Zvi & Merton, Robert C. & Samuelson, William F., 1992. "Labor supply flexibility and portfolio choice in a life cycle model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 16(3-4), pages 427-449.
- Elke Holst & Dean R. Lillard & Thomas A. DiPrete, 2001. "Proceedings of the 2000 Fourth International Conference of German Socio-Economic Panel Study Users (GSOEP 2000): Editorial Introduction," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 70(1), pages 5-6.
- Christopher D. Carroll, 1997. "Buffer-Stock Saving and the Life Cycle/Permanent Income Hypothesis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 112(1), pages 1-55.
- Ayse Imrohoroglu & Selahattin Imrohoroglu & Douglas H. Joines, 1999.
"Social Security in an Overlapping Generations Economy with Land,"
Review of Economic Dynamics,
Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(3), pages 638-665, July.
- Ayse Imrohoroglu & Selahattin Imrohoroglu & Douglas Joines, 1999. "Code for Social Security in an Overlapping Generations Model with Land," Computer Codes imrohoroglu99, Review of Economic Dynamics.
- Joao F. Cocco, 2005. "Consumption and Portfolio Choice over the Life Cycle," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(2), pages 491-533.
- Imrohoroglu, Ayse & Imrohoroglu, Selahattin & Joines, Douglas H, 1995. "A Life Cycle Analysis of Social Security," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 6(1), pages 83-114, June.
This item is featured on the following reading lists or Wikipedia pages:
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp978. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Bibliothek)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.