IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/diw/diwsop/diw_sp326.html

Distributional Consequences of Labor Demand Adjustments to a Downturn: A Model-Based Approach with Applications to Germany 2008-09

Author

Listed:
  • Oliver Bargain
  • Herwig Immervoll
  • Andreas Peichl
  • Sebastian Siegloch

Abstract

Macro-level changes can have substantial effects on the distribution of resources at the household level. While it is possible to speculate about which groups are likely to be hardesthit, detailed distributional studies are still largely backward-looking. This paper suggests a straightforward approach to gauge the distributional and fiscal implications of large output changes at an early stage. We illustrate the method with an evaluation of the impact of the 2008-2009 crisis in Germany. We take as a starting point a very detailed administrative matched employer-employee dataset to estimate labor demand and predict the effects of output shocks at a disaggregated level. The predicted employment effects are then transposed to household-level microdata, in order to analyze the incidence of rising unemployment and reduced working hours on poverty and inequality. We focus on two alternative scenarios of the labor demand adjustment process, one based on reductions in hours (intensive margin) and close to the German experience, and the other assuming extensive margin adjustments that take place through layoffs (close to the US situation). Our results suggest that the distributional and fiscal consequences are less severe when labor demand reacts along the intensive margin.

Suggested Citation

  • Oliver Bargain & Herwig Immervoll & Andreas Peichl & Sebastian Siegloch, 2010. "Distributional Consequences of Labor Demand Adjustments to a Downturn: A Model-Based Approach with Applications to Germany 2008-09," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 326, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwsop:diw_sp326
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.362923.de/diw_sp0326.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stefan Bender & Till von Wachter, 2006. "In the Right Place at the Wrong Time: The Role of Firms and Luck in Young Workers' Careers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1679-1705, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Nolan, Matt, 2018. "Income-leisure preferences in New Zealand: 1988-2013," Working Paper Series 7660, Victoria University of Wellington, Chair in Public Finance.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alexander Hijzen & Sébastien Jean & Thierry Mayer, 2011. "The effects at home of initiating production abroad: evidence from matched French firms," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 147(3), pages 457-483, September.
    2. Wolfgang Dauth & Sebastian Findeisen & Jens Suedekum, 2014. "The Rise Of The East And The Far East: German Labor Markets And Trade Integration," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 12(6), pages 1643-1675, December.
    3. Berge, Wiljan van den, 2018. "Bad start, bad match? The early career effects of graduating in a recession for vocational and academic graduates," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 75-96.
    4. Kunze, Astrid & Troske, Kenneth R., 2012. "Life-cycle patterns in male/female differences in job search," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 176-185.
    5. Jean-Marc Robin & Costas Meghir & Christian Dustmann & Jerome Adda, 2013. "Career Progression, Economic Downturns, and Skills," 2013 Meeting Papers 993, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Ouimet, Paige & Zarutskie, Rebecca, 2014. "Who works for startups? The relation between firm age, employee age, and growth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(3), pages 386-407.
    7. Alexander Hijzen & Sébastien Jean & Thierry Mayer, 2011. "The effects at home of initiating production abroad: evidence from matched French firms," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 147(3), pages 457-483, September.
    8. Hans Dietrich & Harald Pfeifer & Felix Wenzelmann, 2016. "The more they spend, the more I earn? Firms' training investments and post-training wages of apprentices," Economics of Education Working Paper Series 0116, University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW).
    9. Mussida Chiara & Zanin Luca, 2019. "Voluntary Mobility of Employees for Better Job Opportunities Given a Temporary Contract: Insights Regarding an Age-Varying Association Between the Two Events," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 19(2), pages 1-27, April.
    10. David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson & Jae Song, 2014. "Trade Adjustment: Worker-Level Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 129(4), pages 1799-1860.
    11. Balsvik, Ragnhild & Jensen, Sissel & Salvanes, Kjell G., 2015. "Made in China, sold in Norway: Local labor market effects of an import shock," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 137-144.
    12. Richard B. FREEMAN, 2010. "It's financialization!," International Labour Review, International Labour Organization, vol. 149(2), pages 163-183, June.
    13. Amélie Speiser, 2021. "Back to work: the effect of a long-term career interruption on subsequent wages in Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 157(1), pages 1-14, December.
    14. Cahuc, Pierre & Hervelin, Jérémy, 2024. "The effect of workplace vs school-based vocational education on youth unemployment: Evidence from France," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    15. Daiji Kawaguchi & Tetsushi Murao, 2014. "Labor‐Market Institutions and Long‐Term Effects of Youth Unemployment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(S2), pages 95-116, October.
    16. Dickens William T. & Triest Robert K., 2012. "Potential Effects of the Great Recession on the U.S. Labor Market," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(3), pages 1-41, October.
    17. Fitzenberger, Bernd & Licklederer, Stefanie & Zwiener, Hanna, 2015. "Mobility across firms and occupations among graduates from apprenticeship," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 138-151.
    18. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/27gcpqk7lh9jsrd5361jqsbt51 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Udo Brixy & Martin Murmann, 2025. "Hiring opportunities for new firms and the business cycle," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 64(3), pages 1387-1413, March.
    20. Müller, Steffen & Neubäumer, Renate, 2016. "Size of Training Firms and Cumulated Long-run Unemployment Exposure – The Role of Firms, Luck, and Ability in Young Workers’ Careers," IWH Discussion Papers 5/2016, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    21. Regina T. Riphahn & Michael Zibrowius, 2013. "Apprenticeship Training and Early Labor Market Outcomes in East and West Germany," Working Papers 136, Bavarian Graduate Program in Economics (BGPE).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • H24 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Lists

    This item is featured on the following reading lists, Wikipedia, or ReplicationWiki pages:
    1. SOEP based publications

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:diw:diwsop:diw_sp326. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Bibliothek (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sodiwde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.