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A regional labour market model for analyzing the impact of a recession


  • Laura Barbieri

    () (DISCE, Università Cattolica)

  • Maurizio Baussola

    () (DISCE, Università Cattolica)

  • Chiara Mussida

    () (DISCE, Università Cattolica)


The effects of the recent economic recession have been widely discussed, particularly at the macro economic level. However, the economic downturn has been pervasive and has also determined a range of economic effects at different territorial levels. It has therefore become necessary to set up appropriate analytical tools aimed at investigating the impact of the economic downturn at the regional level, and to implement adequate policy options to mitigate such negative impacts. We propose a new macro-micro econometric framework which incorporates simultaneously both aggregate labour demand and supply, and the labour market flows determining the steady-state unemployment rate. We can thus simulate demand or supply shocks and therefore assess their impacts on labour demand and supply, and also on unemployment and labour market flows. This enables us to pinpoint the dynamic effects of such shocks and to compare the different behaviours of the regional framework and of the economy as a whole.

Suggested Citation

  • Laura Barbieri & Maurizio Baussola & Chiara Mussida, 2012. "A regional labour market model for analyzing the impact of a recession," DISCE - Quaderni del Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali dises1288, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
  • Handle: RePEc:ctc:serie2:dises1288

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Gaspard Aeschimann & Gabrielle Antille & Fabrizio Carlevaro & Jean-Paul Chaze & Giovanni Ferro-Luzzi & Yves Flückiger & Manfred Gilli, 1999. "Modelling and forecasting the social contributions to the Swiss Old Age and Survivor Insurance scheme," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 135(III), pages 349-368, September.
    2. Andrea Brandolini & Piero Cipollone & Eliana Viviano, 2006. "Does The Ilo Definition Capture All Unemployment?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(1), pages 153-179, March.
    3. Cameron,A. Colin & Trivedi,Pravin K., 2008. "Microeconometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9787111235767, October.
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    More about this item


    regional econometric models; labour demand and supply; labour market flows; steady-state unemployment rate.;

    JEL classification:

    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • R2 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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