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Aggregate Employment, Real Business Cycles, and Superior Information

We test whether dynamic, stochastic, general equilibrium artificial economies associated with several labor market institutions provide an adequate characterization of aggregate employment volatility and dynamics. Our test is robust to possible misspecifications about the information set used by economic agents to forecast future events. Accounting for the agents' superior information, we find that the divisible labor, indivisible labor, and labor hoarding structures replicate employment volatility, in contrast to the nominal wage contracts and labor adjustment costs structures. Also, the labor hoarding structure provides a substantially better account of employment dynamics than the other labor market structures.

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Paper provided by CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal in its series Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers with number 55.

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Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: Dec 1997
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cre:crefwp:55
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  1. Ingram, B.F. & Kocherlakota, N.R. & Savin, N.E., 1992. "Explaining Business Cycles : A Multiple Shock Approach," Working Papers 92-09, University of Iowa, Department of Economics.
  2. Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent, 1979. "Formulating and estimating dynamic linear rational expectations models," Working Papers 127, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  3. Cogley, Timothy & Nason, James M, 1995. "Output Dynamics in Real-Business-Cycle Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 492-511, June.
  4. Prescott, Edward C., 1986. "Theory ahead of business-cycle measurement," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 11-44, January.
  5. Rogerson, Richard, 1988. "Indivisible labor, lotteries and equilibrium," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 3-16, January.
  6. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1986. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 785, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  7. Hansen, Gary D., 1985. "Indivisible labor and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 309-327, November.
  8. John Campbell & Angus Deaton, 1989. "Why is Consumption So Smooth?," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 56(3), pages 357-373.
  9. Cooley, T.F. & Cho, J.O., 1991. "The Business Cycle with Nominal Contracts," Papers 90-07, Rochester, Business - General.
  10. Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin, 1996. "Factor-Hoarding and the Propagation of Business-Cycle Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1154-74, December.
  11. Jang-Ok Cho, 1993. "Money and Business Cycle with One-Period Nominal Contracts," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 26(3), pages 638-59, August.
  12. Fischer, Stanley, 1977. "Long-Term Contracts, Rational Expectations, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(1), pages 191-205, February.
  13. Charles L. Evans, 1991. "Productivity shocks and real business cycles," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 91-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  14. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum, 1990. "Current real business cycle theories and aggregate labor market fluctuations," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 90, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  15. Normandin, Michel, 1999. "Budget deficit persistence and the twin deficits hypothesis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 171-193, October.
  16. Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J., 1982. "Instrumental variables procedures for estimating linear rational expectations models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 263-296.
  17. Hall, Robert E, 1988. "The Relation between Price and Marginal Cost in U.S. Industry," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 921-47, October.
  18. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 1990. "Labor Hoarding and the Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 3556, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : I. The basic neoclassical model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 195-232.
  20. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
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