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Cyclical Productivity in Europe and the United States, Evaluating the Evidence on Returns to Scale and Input Utilization

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  • Inklaar, Robert

Abstract

This paper studies procyclical productivity growth at the industry level in the U.S. and in three European countries (France, Germany and the Netherlands). Industry-specific demand-side instruments are used to examine the prevalence of non-constant returns to scale and unmeasured input utilization. For the aggregate U.S. economy, unmeasured input utilization seems to explain procyclical productivity. However, this correction still leaves one in three U.S. industries with procyclical productivity. This failure of the model can also be seen in Europe and is mostly concentrated in services industries.

Suggested Citation

  • Inklaar, Robert, 2006. "Cyclical Productivity in Europe and the United States, Evaluating the Evidence on Returns to Scale and Input Utilization," CEPR Discussion Papers 5501, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5501
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    3. Aguiar-Conraria, Luís & Wen, Yi, 2008. "A Note On Oil Dependence And Economic Instability," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(5), pages 717-723, November.
    4. Aguiar-Conraria, Luís & Wen, Yi, 2012. "OPEC's oil exporting strategy and macroeconomic (in)stability," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 132-136.
    5. Lucas Navarro & Raimundo Soto, 2006. "Procyclical Productivity in Manufacturing," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 43(127), pages 193-220.
    6. John Fernald & Brent Neiman, 2011. "Growth Accounting with Misallocation: Or, Doing Less with More in Singapore," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 29-74, April.
    7. Claudia Curi & Paolo Guarda & Ana Lozano-Vivas & Valentin Zelenyuk, 2013. "Is foreign-bank efficiency in financial centers driven by home or host country characteristics?," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 40(3), pages 367-385, December.
    8. John G. Fernald & J. Christina Wang, 2016. "Why Has the Cyclicality of Productivity Changed? What Does It Mean?," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 8(1), pages 465-496, October.
    9. Fernald, John & Inklaar, Robert, 2022. "The UK Productivity "Puzzle" in an International Comparative Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 17321, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Morikawa, Masayuki, 2012. "Demand fluctuations and productivity of service industries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 256-258.
    11. KIYOTA Kozo, 2010. "Productivity, Markup, Scale Economies, and the Business Cycle: Estimates from firm-level panel data in Japan," Discussion papers 10040, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    12. Eugenia Nazrullaeva, 2008. "Measurement of technological progress in Russia (in Russian)," Quantile, Quantile, issue 5, pages 59-82, September.
    13. Biewen, Martin & Weiser, Constantin, 2011. "A New Approach to Testing Marginal Productivity Theory," IZA Discussion Papers 6113, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    14. Valentin Zelenyuk & Claudia Curi & Paolo Guarda & Ana Lozano-Vivas, 2011. "Is foreign-bank efficiency in financial centers driven by home-country characteristics?," CEPA Working Papers Series WP022011, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
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    16. Comin, Diego & Quintana Gonzalez, Javier & Schmitz, Tom & Trigari, Antonella, 2020. "Measuring TFP: The Role of Profits, Adjustment Costs, and Capacity Utilization," CEPR Discussion Papers 15402, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    cyclical productivity; input utilizations; instrumental variables; returns to scale;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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