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A Structural Non-Stationary Model of Job Search: Stigmatization of the Unemployed by Job Offers or Wage Offers?

  • Lollivier, Stefan
  • Rioux, Laurence
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    We develop a structural non-stationary model of job search in the fashion of van den Berg (1990). Non-stationarity comes from the duration-dependence in benefits, in the arrival rate of job offers, and in wage offers. The model is then estimated using the French sample of the ECHP Survey (1994-2000). This data set provides the variables required to identify the model (reservation wages, job offers arrival rate, accepted wages and rejected wages) and allows us to reconstruct the ‘true’ monthly sequence of benefits for each unemployed worker. We find that duration-dependence in job offers is quite limited: the arrival rate of job offers is exactly the same after two years of unemployment than at the beginning of the spell. Duration dependence in wage offers is slightly more pronounced: wages are decreasing during the first two years of unemployment. Nevertheless the most important fall is observed at the beginning of the spell. We also find that the former employed in temporary jobs are more sensitive to duration than the other unemployed. Then we simulate the effects, on the expected duration of unemployment, of different reforms of the unemployment compensation system. The expected duration of unemployment goes from 14.01 months to 14.35 months (i.e. +2.42%) when the level of UI benefit is raised by 14% (reform A). Replacing a declining time sequence by a flat profile (reform B) lengthens the spell of unemployment by 1.39 months (+9.92%). The impact is dramatic on the subset of former high-wage workers, whose unemployment duration is raised by 3.92 months (+24.48%). Compared with reform B, the imposition of sanctions shortens substantially unemployment duration, which goes from 15.4 months to 13.15 months (-14.61%). Once more, the effect is stronger on the subset of former high-wage workers, whose unemployment duration is decreased by 6.15 months (-30.85%). Finally, a 3-month increase in the maximum duration of UI entitlement has a quite limited impact on unemployment duration.

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    Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 5108.

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    Date of creation: Jun 2005
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    Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5108
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    1. B Petrongolo & Christopher Pissarides, 2003. "Scale effects in markets with search," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 2248, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Jensen, Peter & Westergard-Nielsen, Niels C, 1987. "A Search Model Applied to the Transition from Education to Work," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(3), pages 461-72, July.
    3. Paul Frijters & Bas van der Klaau, 2003. "Job Search with Nonparticipation," Paul Frijters Discussion Papers 2003-3, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology.
    4. Fredriksson, Peter & Holmlund, Bertil, 2001. "Optimal Unemployment Insurance in Search Equilibrium," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 19(2), pages 370-99, April.
    5. Boone, Jan & Fredriksson, Peter & Holmlund, Bertil & van Ours, Jan C, 2001. "Optimal Unemployment Insurance with Monitoring and Sanctions," CEPR Discussion Papers 3082, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Hopenhayn, H. & Nicolini, P.J., 1996. "Optimal Unemployment Insurance," RCER Working Papers 421, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
    7. Jones, Stephen R G, 1988. "The Relationship between Unemployment Spells and Reservation Wages as a Test of Search Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 103(4), pages 741-65, November.
    8. Bruce D. Meyer, 1988. "Unemployment Insurance And Unemployment Spells," NBER Working Papers 2546, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Atkinson, Anthony B & Micklewright, John, 1991. "Unemployment Compensation and Labor Market Transitions: A Critical Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 29(4), pages 1679-1727, December.
    10. Melvyn Coles & Adrian Masters, 2004. "Duration-Dependent Unemployment Insurance Payments and Equilibrium Unemployment," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 71, pages 83-97, 02.
    11. Lancaster, Tony & Chesher, Andrew, 1983. "An Econometric Analysis of Reservation Wages," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(6), pages 1661-76, November.
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    13. repec:fth:inseep:9332 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Gerard J. van den Berg & Bas van der Klaauw & Jan C. van Ours, 2004. "Punitive Sanctions and the Transition Rate from Welfare to Work," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 22(1), pages 211-241, January.
    15. van den Berg, Gerard J., 1995. "Explicit expressions for the reservation wage path and the unemployment duration density in nonstationary job search models," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 187-198, June.
    16. Narendranathan, Wiji & Nickell, Stephen, 1985. "Modelling the process of job search," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 29-49, April.
    17. Eckstein, Z. & Wolpin, K.I., 1992. "Duration to First Job and the Return to Schooling : Estimates form a Search -Matching Model," Papers 13-92, Tel Aviv.
    18. Cahuc, Pierre & Lehmann, Etienne, 2000. "Should unemployment benefits decrease with the unemployment spell?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 135-153, July.
    19. Narendranathan, W & Nickell, S & Stern, J, 1985. "Unemployment Benefits Revisited," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 95(378), pages 307-29, June.
    20. Jaap H. Abbring & Gerard J. Berg & Jan C. Ours, 2005. "The Effect of Unemployment Insurance Sanctions on the Transition Rate from Unemployment to Employment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(505), pages 602-630, 07.
    21. Dale Mortensen, 1984. "Job Search and Labor Market Analysis," Discussion Papers 594, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
    22. J. Ignacio García Pérez, 2001. "Non-stationary job search when jobs are not forever: A structural estimation," Economics Working Papers 556, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    23. van den Berg, Gerard J, 1990. "Nonstationarity in Job Search Theory," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(2), pages 255-77, April.
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