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Information Contagion and Inter-Bank Correlation in a Theory of Systemic Risk

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  • Acharya, Viral V
  • Yorulmazer, Tanju

Abstract

Two aspects of systemic risk, the risk that banks fail together, are modeled and their interaction examined. First, the ex-post aspect, in which the failure of a bank brings down a surviving bank as well, and second, the ex-ante aspect, in which banks endogenously hold correlated portfolios increasing the likelihood of joint failure. When bank loan returns have a systematic factor, the failure of one bank conveys adverse information about this systematic factor and increases the cost of borrowing for the surviving banks. Such information contagion is thus costly to bank owners. Given their limited liability, banks herd ex-ante and undertake correlated investments to increase the likelihood of joint survival. If the depositors of a failed bank can migrate to the surviving bank, then herding incentives are partially mitigated and this gives rise to a pro-cyclical pattern in the correlation of bank loan returns. The direction of information contagion, the localized nature of contagion and herding, and the welfare properties, are also characterized.

Suggested Citation

  • Acharya, Viral V & Yorulmazer, Tanju, 2003. "Information Contagion and Inter-Bank Correlation in a Theory of Systemic Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 3743, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:3743
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    Cited by:

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    3. Michiel Bijlsma & Wim Suyker, 2008. "The credit crisis and the Dutch economy... in eight frequently asked questions," CPB Memorandum 210.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    4. Moheeput, Ashwin, 2008. "Financial Fragility, Systemic Risks and Informational Spillovers : Modelling Banking Contagion as State-Contingent Change in Cross-Bank Correlation," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 853, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    5. Hartmann, Philipp & Straetmans, Stefan & de Vries, Casper, 2004. "Fundamentals and joint currency crises," Working Paper Series 324, European Central Bank.
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    7. Ding Ding & Liyan Han & Libo Yin, 2017. "Systemic risk and dynamics of contagion: a duplex inter-bank network," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(9), pages 1435-1445, September.
    8. Michiel Bijlsma & Jeroen Klomp & Sijmen Duineveld, 2010. "Systemic risk in the financial sector; a review and synthesis," CPB Document 210.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    9. Oliver Arentz & Johann Eekhoff & Christine Arentz, 2010. "Zur Finanzmarktkrise: Die Rolle der Immobilienbewertung," IWP Discussion Paper Series 01/2010, Institute for Economic Policy, Cologne, Germany.
    10. Wang, Xiaoting & Hou, Siyuan & Shen, Jie, 2021. "Default clustering of the nonfinancial sector and systemic risk: Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 196-208.
    11. Moheeput, Ashwin, 2008. "Financial Systems, Micro-Systemic Risks and Central Bank Policy : An Analytical Taxonomy of the Literature," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 856, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    contagion; herding; information spillover; interbank correlation; procyclicality; systemic risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D62 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Externalities
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G38 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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