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On the Consequences of the US Withdrawal from the Kyoto/Bonn Protocol

Author

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  • Carraro, Carlo
  • Buchner, Barbara
  • Cersosimo, Igor

Abstract

The US decision not to ratify the Kyoto Protocol and the recent outcomes of the Bonn and Marrakech Conferences of the Parties has important implications for both the effectiveness and the efficiency of future climate policies. Among these implications, those related with technical change and with the functioning of the international market for carbon emissions are particularly relevant, because these variables have the largest impact on the overall abatement cost to be born by Annex B countries in the short and in the long run. This Paper analyses the consequences of the US decision to withdraw from the Kyoto/Bonn Protocol both on technological innovation and on the price of emission permits (and, as a consequence, on abatement costs). A first goal is to assess the impact of the US defection on the price of permits and compliance costs when technological innovation and diffusion is taken into account (the model embodies international technological spillovers). A second goal is to understand for what reasons in the presence of endogenous and induced technical change the reduction of the price of permits is lower than in most empirical analyses recently circulated. A third goal is to assess the role of Russia in climate negotiations, its increased bargaining power and its eventual incentives to follow the US defections.

Suggested Citation

  • Carraro, Carlo & Buchner, Barbara & Cersosimo, Igor, 2002. "On the Consequences of the US Withdrawal from the Kyoto/Bonn Protocol," CEPR Discussion Papers 3239, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:3239
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Barbara Buchner & Carlo Carraro, 2004. "Economic and environmental effectiveness of a technology-based climate protocol," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(3), pages 229-248, September.
    2. Carraro, Carlo & Buchner, Barbara, 2005. "Regional and Sub-Global Climate Blocs. A Game-Theoretic Perspective on Bottom-up Climate Regimes," CEPR Discussion Papers 5034, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Barbara Buchner & Carlo Carraro & Igor Cersosimo & Carmen Marchiori, 2002. "Back to Kyoto? US Participation and the Linkage between R&D and Climate Cooperation," CESifo Working Paper Series 688, CESifo.
    4. Christoph BOhringer & Andreas LOschel, 2003. "Market power and hot air in international emissions trading: the impacts of US withdrawal from the Kyoto Protocol," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(6), pages 651-663.
    5. Frank Biermann & Rainer Brohm, 2005. "Border Adjustments on Energy Taxes: A Possible Tool for European Policymakers in Implementing the Kyoto Protocol?," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 74(2), pages 249-258.
    6. Bernard, A. & Haurie, A. & Vielle, M. & Viguier, L., 2008. "A two-level dynamic game of carbon emission trading between Russia, China, and Annex B countries," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1830-1856, June.
    7. By Thomas Eichner & Rüdiger Pethig, 2015. "Self-enforcing international environmental agreements and trade: taxes versus caps," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 67(4), pages 897-917.
    8. Bjart J. Holtsmark & Knut H. Alfsen, 2004. "Implementation of the Kyoto Protocol without Russian participation," Discussion Papers 376, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    9. Christoph Bohringer & Heinz Welsch, 2006. "Burden sharing in a greenhouse: egalitarianism and sovereignty reconciled," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(9), pages 981-996.
    10. VAN STEENBERGHE, Vincent, 2003. "CO2 abatement costs and permits price : Exploring the impact of banking and the role of future commitments," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2003098, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    11. Scott Barrett & Robert Stavins, 2003. "Increasing Participation and Compliance in International Climate Change Agreements," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 3(4), pages 349-376, December.
    12. Carlo Carraro & Barbara Buchner, 2003. "China and the Evolution of the Present Climate Regime," Working Papers 2003.103, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    13. Barbara Buchner & Marzio Galeotti, 2003. "Climate Policy and Economic Growth in Developing Countries," Working Papers 2003.91, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    14. Raouf Boucekkine & Carmen Camacho & Weihua Ruan & Benteng Zou, 2022. "Why and when coalitions split? An alternative analytical approach with an application to environmental agreements," Working Papers halshs-03676670, HAL.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agreements; climate; Policy; Incentives; Negotiations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H00 - Public Economics - - General - - - General
    • H10 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - General
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General

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