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Implementation of the Kyoto Protocol without Russian participation

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Abstract

All Annex B parties but Russia, Australia and USA, have ratified the Kyoto Protocol so far. It is still an open question whether Russia will ratify and secure that the Protocol enters into force. This paper therefore analyzes consequences of some proposed alternatives if the Russians decide not to ratify. The paper focuses on two cases where a limited number of the remaining Annex B parties respond to Russian withdrawal by the establishment of a new "mini-Kyoto" agreement whereby these parties commit themselves to the emission caps, the rules for emissions trading, compliance etc. set out in the Protocol. Environmentally, implementation of the Kyoto Protocol without participation from Russia and Ukraine is obviously superior to implementation with Russian/Ukrainian participation, due to the implied withdrawal of hot air based permits from the market. Implementation of the Kyoto Protocol without Russian/Ukrainian participation will, furthermore, imply higher costs to the remaining countries. This paper provides estimates of the permit price and environmental benefits that are likely if the proposed "mini-Kyoto" agreements are implemented.

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  • Bjart J. Holtsmark & Knut H. Alfsen, 2004. "Implementation of the Kyoto Protocol without Russian participation," Discussion Papers 376, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:ssb:dispap:376
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    File URL: http://www.ssb.no/a/publikasjoner/pdf/DP/dp376.pdf
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    1. Christoph Bohringer, 2002. "Climate Politics from Kyoto to Bonn: From Little to Nothing?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 51-71.
    2. Chen, Wenying, 2003. "Carbon quota price and CDM potentials after Marrakesh," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 709-719, June.
    3. Golombek, Rolf & Hagem, Cathrine & Hoel, Michael, 1995. "Efficient incomplete international climate agreements," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 25-46, May.
    4. Buchner, Barbara & Carraro, Carlo & Cersosimo, Igor, 2002. "On the Consequences of the US Withdrawal from the Kyoto/Bonn Protocol," CEPR Discussion Papers 3239, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Christoph BOhringer & Andreas LOschel, 2003. "Market power and hot air in international emissions trading: the impacts of US withdrawal from the Kyoto Protocol," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(6), pages 651-663.
    6. Bjart Holtsmark, 2003. "Russian behaviour in the market for permits under the Kyoto Protocol," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(4), pages 399-415, December.
    7. Frank Jotzo & Axel Michaelowa, 2002. "Estimating the CDM market under the Marrakech Accords," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(2-3), pages 179-196, September.
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    Keywords

    Russia; Kyoto Protocol; Global warming; Emissions trading; CDM;

    JEL classification:

    • Q30 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - General
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

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