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Currency Regimes and the Carry Trade

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  • Accominotti, Olivier
  • Cen, Jason
  • Chambers, David
  • Marsh, Ian W

Abstract

This study exploits a new long-run data set of daily bid and offered exchange rates in spot and forward markets from 1919 to the present to analyze carry returns in fixed and floating currency regimes. We first find that outsized carry returns occur exclusively in the floating regime, being zero in the fixed regime. Second, we show that fixed-to-floating regime shifts are associated with negative returns to a carry strategy implemented only on floating currencies, robust to the inclusion of volatility risks. These shifts are typically characterized by global flight-to-safety events that represent bad times for carry traders.

Suggested Citation

  • Accominotti, Olivier & Cen, Jason & Chambers, David & Marsh, Ian W, 2019. "Currency Regimes and the Carry Trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 13571, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:13571
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Derek H. Aldcroft & Michael J. Oliver, 1998. "Exchange Rate Regimes in the Twentieth Century," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 865, March.
    2. James, Harold, 2012. "Making the European Monetary Union," Economics Books, Harvard University Press, number 9780674066830, march.
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    1. repec:osf:socarx:bfehz_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Alain Naef & Jacob P. Weber, 2021. "Regional How Powerful is Unannounced, Sterilized Foreign Exchange Intervention?," Working papers 834, Banque de France.
    3. Olivier Accominotti & Thilo N H Albers & Kim Oosterlinck, 2024. "Selective Default Expectations," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 37(6), pages 1979-2015.
    4. Bruno Thiago Tomio & Guillaume Vallet, 2021. "Carry Trade and Negative Policy Rates in Switzerland : Low-lying fog or storm ?," Post-Print halshs-03669561, HAL.
    5. Alain Naef & Jacob P. Weber, 2023. "How Powerful Is Unannounced, Sterilized Foreign Exchange Intervention?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(5), pages 1307-1319, August.
    6. Calice, Giovanni & Lin, Ming-Tsung, 2024. "Sovereign momentum currency returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 96(PB).
    7. Bordo, Michael & Monnet, Eric & Naef, Alain, 2019. "The Gold Pool (1961–1968) and the Fall of the Bretton Woods System: Lessons for Central Bank Cooperation," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 79(4), pages 1027-1059, December.
    8. Zuzana Rowland & George Lazaroiu & Ivana Podhorská, 2020. "Use of Neural Networks to Accommodate Seasonal Fluctuations When Equalizing Time Series for the CZK/RMB Exchange Rate," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-21, December.
    9. Ulm, M. & Hambuckers, J., 2022. "Do interest rate differentials drive the volatility of exchange rates? Evidence from an extended stochastic volatility model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 125-148.
    10. Roger Vicquéry, 2022. "The Rise and Fall of Global Currencies over Two Centuries," Working papers 882, Banque de France.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate regime; Carry trade;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • N20 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - General, International, or Comparative

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