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Currency Regimes and the Carry Trade

Author

Listed:
  • Accominotti, Olivier
  • Cen, Jason
  • Chambers, David
  • Marsh, Ian W

Abstract

This study exploits a new long-run data set of daily bid and offered exchange rates in spot and forward markets from 1919 to the present to analyze carry returns in fixed and floating currency regimes. We first find that outsized carry returns occur exclusively in the floating regime, being zero in the fixed regime. Second, we show that fixed-to-floating regime shifts are associated with negative returns to a carry strategy implemented only on floating currencies, robust to the inclusion of volatility risks. These shifts are typically characterized by global flight-to-safety events that represent bad times for carry traders.

Suggested Citation

  • Accominotti, Olivier & Cen, Jason & Chambers, David & Marsh, Ian W, 2019. "Currency Regimes and the Carry Trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 13571, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:13571
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Derek H. Aldcroft & Michael J. Oliver, 1998. "Exchange Rate Regimes in the Twentieth Century," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 865.
    2. James, Harold, 2012. "Making the European Monetary Union," Economics Books, Harvard University Press, number 9780674066830, Spring.
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    Cited by:

    1. Michael Bordo & Eric Monnet & Alain Naef, 2017. "The Gold Pool (1961-1968) and the Fall of the Bretton Woods System. Lessons for Central Bank Cooperation," NBER Working Papers 24016, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Zuzana Rowland & George Lazaroiu & Ivana Podhorská, 2020. "Use of Neural Networks to Accommodate Seasonal Fluctuations When Equalizing Time Series for the CZK/RMB Exchange Rate," Risks, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 9(1), pages 1-21, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    carry trade; Exchange Rate Regime;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • N20 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - General, International, or Comparative

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