IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/cup/jfinqa/v54y2019i05p2233-2260_00.html

Currency Regimes and the Carry Trade

Author

Listed:
  • Accominotti, Olivier
  • Cen, Jason
  • Chambers, David
  • Marsh, Ian W.

Abstract

This study exploits a new long-run data set of daily bid and offered exchange rates in spot and forward markets from 1919 to the present to analyze carry returns in fixed and floating currency regimes. We first find that outsized carry returns occur exclusively in the floating regime, being zero in the fixed regime. Second, we show that fixed-to-floating regime shifts are associated with negative returns to a carry strategy implemented only on floating currencies, robust to the inclusion of volatility risks. These shifts are typically characterized by global flight-to-safety events that represent bad times for carry traders.

Suggested Citation

  • Accominotti, Olivier & Cen, Jason & Chambers, David & Marsh, Ian W., 2019. "Currency Regimes and the Carry Trade," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 54(5), pages 2233-2260, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:54:y:2019:i:05:p:2233-2260_00
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S002210901900019X/type/journal_article
    File Function: link to article abstract page
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Calice, Giovanni & Lin, Ming-Tsung, 2024. "Sovereign momentum currency returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 96(PB).
    2. Bordo, Michael & Monnet, Eric & Naef, Alain, 2019. "The Gold Pool (1961–1968) and the Fall of the Bretton Woods System: Lessons for Central Bank Cooperation," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 79(4), pages 1027-1059, December.
    3. repec:osf:socarx:bfehz_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Alain Naef & Jacob P. Weber, 2021. "Regional How Powerful is Unannounced, Sterilized Foreign Exchange Intervention?," Working papers 834, Banque de France.
    5. Zuzana Rowland & George Lazaroiu & Ivana Podhorská, 2020. "Use of Neural Networks to Accommodate Seasonal Fluctuations When Equalizing Time Series for the CZK/RMB Exchange Rate," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-21, December.
    6. Alain Naef & Jacob P. Weber, 2023. "How Powerful Is Unannounced, Sterilized Foreign Exchange Intervention?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(5), pages 1307-1319, August.
    7. Ulm, M. & Hambuckers, J., 2022. "Do interest rate differentials drive the volatility of exchange rates? Evidence from an extended stochastic volatility model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 125-148.
    8. Olivier Accominotti & Thilo N H Albers & Kim Oosterlinck, 2024. "Selective Default Expectations," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 37(6), pages 1979-2015.
    9. Roger Vicquéry, 2022. "The Rise and Fall of Global Currencies over Two Centuries," Working papers 882, Banque de France.
    10. Bruno Thiago Tomio & Guillaume Vallet, 2021. "Carry Trade and Negative Policy Rates in Switzerland : Low-lying fog or storm ?," Post-Print halshs-03669561, HAL.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • N20 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - General, International, or Comparative

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:54:y:2019:i:05:p:2233-2260_00. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Kirk Stebbing (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cambridge.org/jfq .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.