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Trend TFP Growth in the United States: Forecasts versus Outcomes

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  • Crafts, Nicholas
  • Mills, Terence C

Abstract

We analyze TFP growth in the U.S. business sector using a basic unobserved component model where trend growth follows a random walk and the noise is a first-order auto-regression. This is fitted using a Kalman-filter methodology. We find that trend TFP growth has declined steadily from 1.5 per cent to 1.0 per cent per year over the last 50 years. Nevertheless, recent trends are not a good guide to actual medium-term TFP growth. This exhibits substantial variations and is quite unpredictable. Techno-optimists should not give best to secular stagnationists simple because recent TFP growth has been weak.

Suggested Citation

  • Crafts, Nicholas & Mills, Terence C, 2017. "Trend TFP Growth in the United States: Forecasts versus Outcomes," CEPR Discussion Papers 12029, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12029
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    Cited by:

    1. Nicolas Carnot & Stéphanie Pamies Sumner, 2017. "GDP-linked Bonds: Some Simulations on EU Countries," European Economy - Discussion Papers 2015 - 073, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    2. repec:kap:atlecj:v:45:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s11293-017-9551-9 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    productivity slowdown; secular stagnation; TFP growth;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • N12 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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