Real Interest Rates and Central Bank Operating Procedures
In the years following the influential article of Poole (1970), many central banks reoriented their operating procedures to focus more on interest rates and less on monetary aggregates. The rapid restructuring of global financial markets was thought to have led to instability in standard monetary relationships, and Poole's basic insight suggested that a central bank would have better control of the price level if it targeted nominal interest rates instead of monetary aggregates. At the same time, there is a common perception that real interest rates have risen. This paper uses general equilibrium models to suggest that the switch in operating procedures may have caused a bias towards higher real interest rates and (rather perversely) less stable prices. Our model calibrations imply that US real interest rates might be 50 to 100 basis points lower, and prices might be 30-40% more stable, if the Fed switched its focus away from the nominal interest rate and targeted M1 instead. (These estimates assume a coefficient of relative risk aversion between 2.5 and 3.5.) Nominal income targeting would be a good compromise.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
|Date of creation:||Jan 1995|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Centre for Economic Policy Research, 77 Bastwick Street, London EC1V 3PZ.|
Phone: 44 - 20 - 7183 8801
Fax: 44 - 20 - 7183 8820
|Order Information:|| Email: |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1996.
"A Scorecard for Indexed Government Debt,"
NBER Working Papers
5587, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1983. "Stochastic Consumption, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Asset Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 249-265, April.
- Douglas T. Breeden & Michael R Gibbons & Robert H. Litzenberger, "undated". "Empirical Tests of the Consumption-Oriented CAPM," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 7-89, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Canzoneri, Matthew B & Dellas, Harris, 1996. " Monetary Integration in Europe: Implications for Real Interest Rates and Stock Markets," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 98(4), pages 541-547, December.
- Reuven Glick & Kenneth Rogoff, 1992.
"Global Versus Country-Specific Productivity Shocks and the Current Account,"
NBER Working Papers
4140, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Glick, Reuven & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Global versus country-specific productivity shocks and the current account," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 159-192, February.
- Reuven Glick & Kenneth Rogoff, 1993. "Global Versus Country-Specific Productivity Shocks and the Current Acocount," Boston University - Institute for Economic Development 31, Boston University, Institute for Economic Development.
- Reuven Glick & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1993. "Global versus country-specific productivity shocks and the current account," International Finance Discussion Papers 443, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Reuven Glick & Kenneth Rogoff, 1992. "Global versus country-specific productivity shocks and the current account," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 92-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Anonymous, 1994. "Monetary Policy Statement, December 1994," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 57, December.
- Sanford J. Grossman & Robert J. Shiller, 1980.
"The Determinants of the Variability of Stock Market Prices,"
NBER Working Papers
0564, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Grossman, Sanford J & Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "The Determinants of the Variability of Stock Market Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(2), pages 222-227, May.
- S. Grossman & R. Shiller, "undated". "The Determinants of the Variability of Stock Market Price," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 18-80, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Mccallum, Bennet T., 1988. "Robustness properties of a rule for monetary policy," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 173-203, January.
- Marvin Goodfriend & David H. Small(), 1993. "Operating procedures and the conduct of monetary policy: conference proceedings," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Richard Clarida & Mark Gertler, 1996.
"How the Bundesbank Conducts Monetary Policy,"
NBER Working Papers
5581, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 1995.
"Interest rate rules vs. money growth rules: a welfare comparison in a cash-in-advance economy,"
9504, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Carlstrom, Charles T. & Fuerst, Timothy S., 1995. "Interest rate rules vs. money growth rules a welfare comparison in a cash-in-advance economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 247-267, November.
- Fama, Eugene F. & Schwert, G. William, 1977. "Asset returns and inflation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 115-146, November.
- A. Sandmo, 1970. "The Effect of Uncertainty on Saving Decisions," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 37(3), pages 353-360.
- Matthew B. Canzoneri & Dale W. Henderson & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1981.
"The information content of the interest rate and optimal monetary policy,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
192, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Matthew B. Canzoneri & Dale W. Henderson & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1983. "The Information Content of the Interest Rate and Optimal Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 98(4), pages 545-566.
- Litzenberger, Robert H & Ronn, Ehud I, 1986. " A Utility-based Model of Common Stock Price Movements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(1), pages 67-92, March.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:1099. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.