IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cop/wpaper/g-216.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Growth and Change in the Vietnamese Labour Market: A decomposition of forecast trends in employment over 2010-2020

Author

Listed:
  • J. A. Giesecke
  • N. H. Tran
  • G.A. Meagher
  • F. Pang

Abstract

We forecast detailed trends for employment by industry, occupation and qualification in Vietnam for the period 2010 - 2020. The forecast is conducted using VNET - a large-scaled computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Vietnamese economy. Inputs into the forecast include independent projections for changes in macroeconomic variables; trend movements in variables describing the details of industry input requirements and household preferences; assumptions relating to Vietnam's foreign trading environment; and projections for government policies. A decomposition analysis is used to identify the contribution of each of the exogenous shocks to the forecast outcomes. This analysis facilitates transparency in forecasting by clearly distinguishing and ranking the factors responsible for generating a particular forecast outcome. It also helps researchers to focus research effort towards improving estimates for those inputs to the simulation that have the most bearing on the outcomes forecast for the labour market.

Suggested Citation

  • J. A. Giesecke & N. H. Tran & G.A. Meagher & F. Pang, 2011. "Growth and Change in the Vietnamese Labour Market: A decomposition of forecast trends in employment over 2010-2020," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-216, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    • Handle: RePEc:cop:wpaper:g-216
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.copsmodels.com/ftp/workpapr/g-216.pdf
    File Function: Initial version, 2011-04
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.copsmodels.com/elecpapr/g-216.htm
    File Function: Local abstract: may link to additional material.
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. W. Jill Harrison & J. Mark Horridge & K.R. Pearson, 2000. "Decomposing Simulation Results with Respect to Exogenous Shocks," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 15(3), pages 227-249, June.
    2. Harrison, W Jill & Pearson, K R, 1996. "Computing Solutions for Large General Equilibrium Models Using GEMPACK," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 9(2), pages 83-127, May.
    3. Paul S. Armington, 1969. "A Theory of Demand for Products Distinguished by Place of Production (Une théorie de la demande de produits différenciés d'après leur origine) (Una teoría de la demanda de productos distinguiénd," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 16(1), pages 159-178, March.
    4. Akitoby, Bernardin & Clements, Benedict & Gupta, Sanjeev & Inchauste, Gabriela, 2006. "Public spending, voracity, and Wagner's law in developing countries," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 908-924, December.
    5. Syrquin, Moshe, 1988. "Patterns of structural change," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Hollis Chenery & T.N. Srinivasan (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 7, pages 203-273, Elsevier.
    6. Jean-Pierre Cling & Mireille Razafindrakoto & Francois Roubaud, 2009. "Vietnam's WTO Accession and Export-Led Growth- Introduction," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 118, pages 5-12.
    7. Alesina, Alberto & Spolaore, Enrico & Wacziarg, Romain, 2005. "Trade, Growth and the Size of Countries," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 23, pages 1499-1542, Elsevier.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nguyen Tran Tuan & Gábor Hegedűs, 2022. "Urbanization and Post-Acquisition Livelihood in a Peri-Urban Context in Vietnam: A Geographical Comparison between Hanoi, Danang, and Vinh City," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-17, October.
    2. Kristinn Hermannsson & Patrizio Lecca & J. Kim Swales, 2017. "How much does a single graduation cohort from further education colleges contribute to an open regional economy?," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 429-451, October.
    3. Angie Ngoc Tran & Irene Nørlund, 2015. "Globalization, industrialization, and labor markets in Vietnam," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(1), pages 143-163, January.
    4. Janine Dixon, 2017. "Victoria University Employment Forecasts: 2017 edition," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-277, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    5. Boeters, Stefan & Savard, Luc, 2013. "The Labor Market in Computable General Equilibrium Models," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 1645-1718, Elsevier.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dissou, Yazid & Shahid Siddiqui, Muhammad, 2011. "Carbon Taxes and Inequality," Conference papers 332163, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    2. Hertel, Thomas W. & Tyner, Wallace E. & Birur, Dileep K., 2008. "Biofuels for all? Understanding the Global Impacts of Multinational Mandates," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6526, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    3. Anderson, Kym & Jackson, Lee Ann, 2004. "GM food technology abroad and its implications for Australia and New Zealand," 2004 Conference (48th), February 11-13, 2004, Melbourne, Australia 58365, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    4. Wittwer, Glyn & Rothfield, Jeremy, 2005. "Projecting the world wine market from 2003 to 2010," Australasian Agribusiness Review, University of Melbourne, Department of Agriculture and Food Systems, vol. 13.
    5. Anderson, Kym & Jackson, Lee Ann, 2005. "Genetically Modified Rice Adoption: Implications for Welfare and Poverty Alleviation," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 20, pages 771-788.
    6. Alan Matthews & Keith Walsh, 2006. "The Economic Consequences of the Doha Round for Ireland," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 37(1), pages 47-69.
    7. Peter B. Dixon & Maureen T. Rimmer, 2003. "The US economy from 1992 to 1998: historical and decomposition simulations with the USAGE model," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-143, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    8. James A Giesecke & John R Madden, 2006. "Uncovering the Factors behind Comparative Regional Economic Performance: A Dynamic CGE Approach," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-165, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    9. Keith Walsh & Martina Brockmeier & Alan Matthews, 2005. "Implications of Domestic Support Disciplines for Further Agricultural Trade Liberalization," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp99, IIIS.
    10. Martina Brockmeier & Janine Pelikan, 2006. "Agricultural Market Access: A Moving Target in the WTO Negotiations?," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp125, IIIS.
    11. Alan Matthews & Keith Walsh, 2006. "The Doha Development Agenda: Mixed Prospects for Developing Countries," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp157, IIIS.
    12. Anderson, Kym & Jackson, Lee Ann, 2004. "Implications of genetically modified food technology policies for Sub-Saharan Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3411, The World Bank.
    13. 武田 史郎, 2007. "貿易政策を対象とした応用一般均衡分析," Discussion Papers (Japanese) 07010, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    14. Ianchovichina, Elena, 2004. "Trade policy analysis in the presence of duty drawbacks," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 353-371, April.
    15. Juan Alberto Vázquez-Muñoz, 2018. "La acumulación de capital como un determinante de la tasa de crecimiento de la ley de Thirlwall," Contaduría y Administración, Accounting and Management, vol. 63(3), pages 13-14, Julio-Sep.
    16. Oliver Schenker, 2013. "Exchanging Goods and Damages: The Role of Trade on the Distribution of Climate Change Costs," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 54(2), pages 261-282, February.
    17. Krzysztof Kosiec, 2016. "Liberalisation of International Trade – The Case of Asymmetric Countries," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 8(3), pages 143-160, September.
    18. Redding, Stephen J. & Weinstein, David E., 2016. "A unified approach to estimating demand and welfare," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 67681, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    19. António Afonso & José Alves, 2017. "Reconsidering Wagner’s law: evidence from the functions of the government," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(5), pages 346-350, March.
    20. Cai, Yiyong & Newth, David & Finnigan, John & Gunasekera, Don, 2015. "A hybrid energy-economy model for global integrated assessment of climate change, carbon mitigation and energy transformation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 381-395.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    labour market forecasting; long-run forecasting; decomposition analysis; Vietnamese economy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cop:wpaper:g-216. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Mark Horridge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cpmonau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.