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The Doha Development Agenda: Mixed Prospects for Developing Countries

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  • Alan Matthews
  • Keith Walsh

Abstract

This paper uses the GTAP computable general equilibrium model to assess the impact of a Doha Development Agenda agreement on agricultural trade liberalisation. In particular, we examine the consequences for developing countries. The simulation incorporates further liberalisation in the areas of market access, export competition and domestic support. Most developing regions can expect strong positive results from this liberalisation, however some suffer a decrease in welfare. The magnitude of the welfare effect for these countries depends on measures to be taken by developing countries themselves, and whether they will materialise must be uncertain. The results highlight the importance of the impact of further liberalisation of the erosion of preferential trading arrangements enjoyed by developing regions.

Suggested Citation

  • Alan Matthews & Keith Walsh, 2006. "The Doha Development Agenda: Mixed Prospects for Developing Countries," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp157, IIIS.
  • Handle: RePEc:iis:dispap:iiisdp157
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. W. Jill Harrison & J. Mark Horridge & K.R. Pearson, 2000. "Decomposing Simulation Results with Respect to Exogenous Shocks," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 15(3), pages 227-249, June.
    2. Hertel, Thomas & Hummels, David & Ivanic, Maros & Keeney, Roman, 2007. "How confident can we be of CGE-based assessments of Free Trade Agreements?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 611-635, July.
    3. Will Martin & Kym Anderson, 2006. "Agricultural Trade Reform and the Doha Development Agenda," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 6889.
    4. Alan Matthews & Jacques Gallezot, 2006. "The role of EBA in the political economy of CAP reform," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp133, IIIS.
    5. C. F. Bach & S. E. Frandsen & H. G. Jensen, 2000. "Agricultural and Economy-Wide Effects of European Enlargement: Modelling the Common Agricultural Policy," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(2), pages 162-180.
    6. Harrison, W Jill & Pearson, K R, 1996. "Computing Solutions for Large General Equilibrium Models Using GEMPACK," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 9(2), pages 83-127, May.
    7. Antoine Bouët & Jean-Christophe Bureau & Yvan Decreux & Sébastien Jean, 2005. "Multilateral Agricultural Trade Liberalisation: The Contrasting Fortunes of Developing Countries in the Doha Round," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(9), pages 1329-1354, September.
    8. Joseph Francois & Hans Van Meijl & Frank Van Tongeren, 2005. "Trade liberalization in the Doha Development Round," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 20(42), pages 349-391, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Susan Senior Nello, 2007. "Winners and Losers from World Agricultural Trade Liberalisation," RSCAS Working Papers 2007/18, European University Institute.

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    Keywords

    Agricultural trade liberalisation; GTAP; developing countries;

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