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Poverty impacts of increased openness and fiscal policies in a dollarized economy: a CGE-micro approach for Ecuador


  • Sara Wong


  • Ricardo Arguello


  • Ketty Rivera


We quantify the effects on poverty and income distribution in Ecuador of bilateral tradeliberalization with the US and a budget-neutral value added tax increase which seeks to compensatetariff revenue losses. We stress the study of fiscal policies that the government couldtap in order to compensate for tariff revenue loss. This is a very important issue for Ecuadorbecause this country adopted the US dollar as its currency in 2000, forgiving the use of importantpolicy instruments. To study these issues we combine a reduced-form micro householdincome and occupational choice model (using 2005/6 data from the Ecuadorian LSMS) with astandard single-country computable general equilibrium model (employing a 2004 SAM). Wefollow a sequential approach that simulates the full distributional impact of trade and tax policies.We find that the impact of these policy changes on extreme poverty and income distributionis small but positive.

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  • Sara Wong & Ricardo Arguello & Ketty Rivera, 2007. "Poverty impacts of increased openness and fiscal policies in a dollarized economy: a CGE-micro approach for Ecuador," DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO 004367, UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000092:004367

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. John Cockburn, 2002. "Trade Liberalisation and Poverty in Nepal: A Computable General Equilibrium Micro Simulation Analysis," CSAE Working Paper Series 2002-11, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    2. Go, Delfin S. & Kearney, Marna & Robinson, Sherman & Thierfelder, Karen, 2005. "An Analysis of South Africa's Value Added Tax," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3671, The World Bank.
    3. Carolina Sanchez-Paramo, 2005. "Poverty in Ecuador," World Bank Other Operational Studies 10333, The World Bank.
    4. André Fargeix & Elisabeth Sadoulet, 1990. "A Financial Computable General Equilibrium Model for the Analysis of Ecuador's Stabilization Programs," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 10, OECD Publishing.
    5. BUSSOLO Maurizio & LAY Jann, "undated". "Globalization and Poverty Changes in Colombia," EcoMod2003 330700029, EcoMod.
    6. François Bourguignon & Anne-Sophie Robilliard & Sherman Robinson, 2003. "Representative versus real households in the macro-economic modeling of inequality," Working Papers DT/2003/10, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation).
    7. Löfgren, Hans & Harris, Rebecca Lee & Robinson, Sherman, 2001. "A standard computable general equilibrium (CGE) model in GAMS," TMD discussion papers 75, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    8. Rob Vos & Niek De Jong, 2003. "Trade Liberalization and Poverty in Ecuador: A CGE Macro-Microsimulation Analysis," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(2), pages 211-232.
    9. Angus Deaton & Salman Zaidi, 2002. "Guidelines for Constructing Consumption Aggregates for Welfare Analysis," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 14101.
    10. Robilliard, Anne-Sophie & Robinson, Sherman, 2005. "The social impact of a WTO agreement in Indonesia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3747, The World Bank.
    11. Loayza, Norman V. & Rigolini, Jamele, 2006. "Informality trends and cycles," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4078, The World Bank.
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    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy
    • O54 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean

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