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A Financial Computable General Equilibrium Model for the Analysis of Ecuador's Stabilization Programs

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  • André Fargeix
  • Elisabeth Sadoulet

Abstract

This paper presents an application to Ecuador of a computable general equilibrium model with a financial component, following the lead of F. Bourguignon, W. Branson and J. de Melo. Their macro-micro model was introduced in Technical Paper No.1 "Macroeconomic Adjustment and Income Distribution. A Macro-micro Simulation Model".The authors first review the crisis of the Ecuadorian economy, the stabilization programmes that were implemented by governments and the economic effects of these programmes. Then the model and the corresponding data base are presented and used to perform three dynamic simulations. In the first case, there is no adjustment; in the second simulation, all public expenditures are reduced by the same percentage; and in the third simulation, the annual growth in money supply is reduced. For each simulation, the authors display the effects on growth, imbalances and income distribution. Finally a sensitivity analysis has been undertaken in order to assess the impact ... Ce document présente l'application à l'Equateur d'un modèle d'équilibre general calculable qui comprend un secteur financier, dans la ligne du modèle macro-micro proposé par F. Bourguignon, W. Branson et J. de Melo dans le document technique no.1 "Macroeconomic Adjustment and Income Distribution. A Macro-micro Simulation Model".Au préalable, les auteurs décrivent la crise qui a touché l'Equateur, les programmes de stabilisation exécutés par les gouvernements et les conséquences économiques de ces programmes avant de présenter le modèle et la base de données correspondante. Puis les résultats de trois simulations en dynamique sont exposés. La première ne suppose aucun ajustement ; la seconde que l'ajustement consiste seulement en une réduction de toutes les dépenses publiques ; la troisième qu'il se fonde sur une diminution de la croissance de la masse monétaire. Dans chaque cas, les effets sur la croissance, sur les déséquilibres et sur la distribution des revenus sont mis en ...

Suggested Citation

  • André Fargeix & Elisabeth Sadoulet, 1990. "A Financial Computable General Equilibrium Model for the Analysis of Ecuador's Stabilization Programs," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 10, OECD Publishing.
  • Handle: RePEc:oec:devaaa:10-en
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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/436433611137
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    Cited by:

    1. Sara Wong & Ricardo Arguello & Ketty Rivera, 2007. "Poverty impacts of increased openness and fiscal policies in a dollarized economy: a CGE-micro approach for Ecuador," DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO 004367, UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO.
    2. Jorge Alarcon & Jan Van Heemst & Niek De Jong, 2000. "Extending the SAM with Social and Environmental Indicators: An Application to Bolivia," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 473-496.

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