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Trade Liberalization and Poverty in Ecuador: A CGE Macro-Microsimulation Analysis

Author

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  • Rob Vos
  • Niek De Jong

Abstract

Cross-country analysis of the aggregate growth-poverty link is likely to miss important country-specific detail and possible offsetting forces in the underlying labour market adjustment process. This paper combines a CGE model analysis with a microsimulations approach to analyse the effects of trade liberalization on poverty and income distribution in Ecuador. The CGE model enables us to disentangle the general equilibrium effects of various trade policy scenarios on sector output, employment, factor incomes and household consumption. However, as is typical of CGE models, this analysis only provides distribution results for fairly aggregated groups of workers and a reduced number of representative households. The microsimulations approach adds the full distribution to the analysis and allows simulation of the effects of trade reform on the job status and remuneration of individual workers and thereby on household income distribution and poverty. The macro- microsimulation results indicate that the trade opening in Ecuador induced mild aggregate welfare gains, but rising income inequality due to rising wage differentials between skilled and unskilled workers implies virtually no poverty-reducing effect from trade liberalization.

Suggested Citation

  • Rob Vos & Niek De Jong, 2003. "Trade Liberalization and Poverty in Ecuador: A CGE Macro-Microsimulation Analysis," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(2), pages 211-232.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:ecsysr:v:15:y:2003:i:2:p:211-232
    DOI: 10.1080/0953531032000091180
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jonasson, Erik & Filipski, Mateusz & Brooks, Jonathan & Taylor, J. Edward, 2014. "Modeling the welfare impacts of agricultural policies in developing countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 63-82.
    2. Jonasson, Erik & Filipski, Mateusz & Brooks, Jonathan & Taylor, J. Edward, 2012. "Modeling the Welfare Implications of Agricultural Policies in Developing Countries," Working Papers 2012:11, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    3. Dorothée Boccanfuso & Antonio Estache & Luc Savard, 2009. "Electricity Reforms In Mali: A Macro-Micro Analysis Of The Effects On Poverty And Distribution," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 77(1), pages 127-147, March.
    4. Vaqar Ahmed & Cathal O'Donoghue, 2010. "External Shocks in a Small Open Economy: A CGE - Microsimulation Analysis," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 15(1), pages 45-90, Jan-Jun.
    5. World Bank, 2004. "Ecuador : Poverty Assessment," World Bank Other Operational Studies 14593, The World Bank.
    6. Jeong-Soo OH & Phouphet Kyophilavong, 2015. "Trade Liberalization and Poverty in Developing Countries: Literature Survey," International Journal of Economics and Empirical Research (IJEER), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 3(2), pages 86-94, Fabruary.
    7. Dorothée BOCCANFUSO & Massa COULABY & Govinda R TIMILSINA & Luc SAVARD, "undated". "Economic and Distributional Impact of Bio-Fuels in Mali," EcoMod2010 259600032, EcoMod.
    8. Dorothée Boccanfuso & Luc Savard & Antonio Estache, 2013. "The Distributional Impact of Developed Countries’ Climate Change Policies on Senegal: A Macro-Micro CGE Application," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 5(6), pages 1-24, June.
    9. Samir Cury & Euclides Pedrozo, 2016. "Cash Transfer Policies, Taxation and the Fall in Inequality in Brazil An Integrated Microsimulation-CGE Analysis
      [equilibrium model, microsimulation model, Brazil. Classification-JEL: C68, D58, I38
      ," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 9(1), pages 55-85.
    10. Sara Wong & Ricardo Arguello & Ketty Rivera, 2007. "Poverty impacts of increased openness and fiscal policies in a dollarized economy: a CGE-micro approach for Ecuador," DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO 004367, UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO.
    11. Boccanfuso, Dorothee & Coulibaly, Massa & Timilsina, Govinda R. & Savard, Luc, 2013. "Macroeconomic and distributional impacts of jatropha-based biodiesel in Mali," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6500, The World Bank.
    12. Binjian, Binjian & Sakamoto, Hiroshi, 2013. "Market Reform and Income Distribution in China : A CGE–Microsimulation Approach," AGI Working Paper Series 2013-13, Asian Growth Research Institute.
    13. Dorothée Boccanfuso & Antonio Estache & Luc Savard, 2007. "Electricity Reforms in Senegal: A Macro–Micro Analysis of the Effects on Poverty and Distribution," Cahiers de recherche 07-12, Departement d'Economique de l'École de gestion à l'Université de Sherbrooke.
    14. Alvaro Gallardo & Cristian Mardones, 2013. "Environmentally extended social accounting matrix for Chile," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 1099-1127, August.

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