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Myths of drug consumption decriminalization: effects of Portuguese decriminalization on violent and drug use mortality

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  • Lucas Marín Llanes
  • Hernando Zuleta

Abstract

There is scarce empirical evidence on the impacts of drug consumption decriminalization, especially, on problematic drug use and violence. In 2001, Portugal decriminalized the consumption of all illicit drugs. In this paper, we focus on determining the short, medium, and long-term impact of Portuguese decriminalization on mortality due to drug use and homicides, from both theoretical and empirical perspectives. We model drug consumption using an intertemporal consumption model and the decisions of trafficking firms to gain market share employing an optimization model. Our results suggest a non-linear effect of decriminalization on drug consumption risk and increasing incentives for firms to expand their market share employing violence after decriminalization. Empirically, we estimate a negative short-run effect on drug-related deaths and null long-run impacts of this legal reform. In terms of homicides, we find a positive effects in a range of 28.7%-34.2% in the medium- and long-term.

Suggested Citation

  • Lucas Marín Llanes & Hernando Zuleta, 2022. "Myths of drug consumption decriminalization: effects of Portuguese decriminalization on violent and drug use mortality," Documentos CEDE 20328, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000089:020328
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Illicit drugs; decriminalization; drug policy reform; consumption drug-relateddeaths; homicides.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • K14 - Law and Economics - - Basic Areas of Law - - - Criminal Law
    • K38 - Law and Economics - - Other Substantive Areas of Law - - - Human Rights Law; Gender Law; Animal Rights Law
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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