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An Empirical Analysis of Macroeconomic Resilience: The Case of the Great Recession in the European Union

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  • Jan Bruha
  • Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova

Abstract

In this paper, we analyse macroeconomic developments in European economies since the Great Recession. We present evidence that macroeconomic developments in the EU countries can be classified into latent classes. Countries in a given class exhibit a similar pattern of economic and labour market developments during and after the crisis. We then present evidence that the latent classes of countries differ in terms of quality of institutions and regulation. Based on this, we conclude that quality of institutions and regulation are crucial for the resilience of countries to shocks. The most important country characteristics associated with a quick recovery after the initial shock are low protection of temporary contracts, political stability, regulatory quality and pre-crisis fiscal space. On the other hand, other types of employment protection and generosity of unemployment benefits seem to not influence resilience.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan Bruha & Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova, 2017. "An Empirical Analysis of Macroeconomic Resilience: The Case of the Great Recession in the European Union," Working Papers 2017/10, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2017/10
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Great Recession; institutions; regulation; resilience;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • E02 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Institutions and the Macroeconomy
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes

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