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Currency Shocks to Export Sales of Importers: A Heterogeneous Firms Model and Czech Micro Estimates

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  • Peter Toth

Abstract

To what extent can Czech exporters cushion the impact of currency appreciation shocks by using imported intermediates? We apply a partial equilibrium model with firms that are heterogeneous in their productivities. Producers can serve the domestic market, export final goods, or import inputs. In the model, an exogenous exchange rate shock simultaneously affects the variable costs and revenues associated with exports and imports. The impact of a hypothetical 1% appreciation of the domestic currency on sales is estimated using a panel of 7,356 Czech manufacturing firms observed from 2003 to 2006. We identify the estimates from within-firm variation in trade strategies, which is probably associated with the lifting of trade barriers due to Czech EU membership since 2004. For firms that both export and import, we predict a drop in total sales of 0.2%, a drop in export sales of 0.8%, and a rise in domestic sales of 0.2%.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Toth, 2013. "Currency Shocks to Export Sales of Importers: A Heterogeneous Firms Model and Czech Micro Estimates," Working Papers 2013/04, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2013/04
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Baniak, Andrzej & Philips, Louis, 1995. "La Pleiade and exchange rate pass-through," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 195-211.
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    3. Roberts, Mark J & Tybout, James R, 1997. "The Decision to Export in Colombia: An Empirical Model of Entry with Sunk Costs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(4), pages 545-564, September.
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    5. Kasahara, Hiroyuki & Lapham, Beverly, 2013. "Productivity and the decision to import and export: Theory and evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 297-316.
    6. Marc J. Melitz, 2003. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1695-1725, November.
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    9. Krugman, Paul, 1980. "Scale Economies, Product Differentiation, and the Pattern of Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 950-959, December.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate pass-through; heterogeneous firms; international trade; monopolistic competition; production function; total factor productivity.;

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C26 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation

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