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Why and How to Assess Inflation Target Fulfilment

  • Jan Filacek

The ex post analysis of inflation target fulfilment plays an important role in an inflation targeting framework. The major benefits of ex post analysis are threefold. First, it might improve the forecast accuracy. Second, it helps central bank staff and board members to understand the capabilities and limitations of the forecasts used in their decision-making. Third, it enhances monetary policy transparency and credibility. The primary aim of this paper is to propose a methodological framework for inflation target fulfilment assessment based on partial simulations, as applied in the Czech National Bank. In order to demonstrate the applicability of this framework we analyse the performance of the Czech National Bank between 2002 and 2006. We show that a large part of the inflation target misses in this period can be assigned to bias in the variables describing external developments.

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Paper provided by Czech National Bank, Research Department in its series Working Papers with number 2007/11.

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Date of creation: Dec 2007
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Handle: RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2007/11
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  1. Georgios Chortareas & David Stasavage & Gabriel Sterne, 2002. "Does it pay to be transparent? international evidence form central bank forecasts," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 99-118.
  2. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2004. "Can Central Bank Transparency Go Too Far?," NBER Working Papers 10829, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Ales Bulir & Jaromir Hurnik, 2006. "The Maastricht Inflation Criterion: "Saints" and "Sinners"," Working Papers 2006/8, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
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