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Exporting to Insecure Markets: a Firm-Level Analysis


  • Matthieu Crozet
  • Pamina Koenig
  • Vincent Rebeyrol


This paper proposes an original approach to investigate the influence of insecurity and institutional quality on international trade. We emphasize that insecurity is hardly comparable with other trade barriers such as tariffs because it does not affect all firms similarly. We develop a monopolistic competition trade model with insecurity as a random additional sunk cost for exporting firms. A higher level of insecurity may dissuade large firms to export, while some smaller ones may be able to enter the export market. Hence, insecurity disrupts firms’ selection into export markets, and this has particular effects on trade margins. Two discriminating predictions are derived from the model and confronted to the data. Using individual French firms exports to 100 destination countries, we find clear evidence corroborating our theoretical predictions.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthieu Crozet & Pamina Koenig & Vincent Rebeyrol, 2008. "Exporting to Insecure Markets: a Firm-Level Analysis," Working Papers 2008-13, CEPII research center.
  • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2008-13

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Daniel Mirza & Thierry Verdier, 2014. "Are Lives a Substitute for Livelihoods? Terrorism, Security, and US Bilateral Imports," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 58(6), pages 943-975, September.
    2. J. M. C. Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2006. "The Log of Gravity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(4), pages 641-658, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Piotr Gabrielczak & Tomasz Serwach, 2017. "Does the euro increase the complexity of exported goods? The case of Estonia," Lodz Economics Working Papers 4/2017, University of Lodz, Faculty of Economics and Sociology.
    2. Massimiliano Bratti & Giulia Felice, 2012. "Buyer-Supplier Relationships, Internationalization and Product Innovation," Development Working Papers 327, Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano, University of Milano, revised 13 Nov 2012.
    3. Piotr Gabrielczak & Tomasz Serwach, 2017. "The impact of the euro adoption on the complexity of goods in Slovenian exports," Lodz Economics Working Papers 3/2017, University of Lodz, Faculty of Economics and Sociology.
    4. Florian MAYNERIS & Sandra PONCET, 2011. "Entry on difficult export markets by Chinese domestic firms: the role of foreign export spillovers," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2011041, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    5. Türkmen GÖKSEL, 2010. "Export Insurance Policy When Exporting to Lesser-Known Markets," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 2010-2.
    6. Vannoorenberghe, G., 2012. "Firm-level volatility and exports," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 57-67.
    7. Eddy Bekkers, 2011. "Heterogeneous Popularity and Exporting Uncertainty," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(5), pages 797-824, November.
    8. Osnago, Alberto & Piermartini, Roberta & Rocha, Nadia, 2015. "Trade policy uncertainty as barrier to trade," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2015-05, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    9. Balazs Murakozy & Gabor Bekes, 2009. "Temporary Trade," IEHAS Discussion Papers 0909, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences.
    10. Tomasz Serwach, 2012. "Why Learning by Exporting May Not Be As Common As You Think and What It Means for Policy," International Journal of Management, Knowledge and Learning, International School for Social and Business Studies, Celje, Slovenia, vol. 1(2), pages 157-172.
    11. Békés, Gábor & Muraközy, Balázs, 2012. "Temporary trade and heterogeneous firms," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 232-246.
    12. Antoine Berthou & Lionel Fontagné, 2008. "The Euro Effects on the Firm and Product-Level Trade Margins: Evidence from France," Working Papers 2008-21, CEPII research center.
    13. repec:rfe:zbefri:v:35:y:2017:i:1:p:45-71 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Harold Creusen & Henk Kox & Arjan Lejour & Roger Smeets, 2011. "Exploring the Margins of Dutch Exports: A Firm-Level Analysis," De Economist, Springer, vol. 159(4), pages 413-434, December.
    15. Roger Smeets & Harold Creusen, 2011. "Fixed export costs and multi-product firms," CPB Discussion Paper 188, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    16. Michel Aglietta & Vladimir Borgy, 2008. "Demographic Uncertainty in Europe. Implications on Macro Economic Trends and Pension Reforms," Working Papers 2008-22, CEPII research center.
    17. Lejour Arjan & Creusen Harold, 2015. "Using Stepping Stones to Enter Distant Export Markets," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 15(1), pages 107-132, March.

    More about this item


    Insecurity; Institutions; firm heterogeneity; trade margins;

    JEL classification:

    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • K40 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - General
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General

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