The Fallacy of Crowding-Out: A Note on â€œNative Internal Migration and the Labor Market Impact of Immigrationâ€
In â€œNative Internal Migration and the Labor Market Impact of Immigration,â€ George Borjas (2006) identifies a strong negative correlation between immigration and native-born employment in the US using local area data. This relationship is particularly strong at the metropolitan area level, weaker but still significant at the state level, and weakest at the Census region level. In this note, we show that Borjasâ€™s negative correlation arises due to the construction of the dependent and explanatory variables rather than from any true negative association between the employment growth of immigrants and natives. Borjas regresses log native employment, ln(Nt), on the share of foreign-born employment, pt = Mt/(Mt + Nt), across skill-state-year cells. The specification therefore includes native employment in the numerator of the dependent variable and in the denominator of the explanatory variable. This builds a negative correlation into the model that is particularly strong if the variance of Nt relative to Mt is large. To illustrate, we first show that state and city level regressions of the standardized native employment change, (Nt+10âˆ’Nt)/(Mt+Nt), on standardized immigration, (Mt+10 âˆ’Mt)/(Mt+Nt), always find a positive and mostly significant correlation between the two. Second, we randomly simulate changes in the native and foreign-born workforce with a data generating process that has zero or positive correlation between the shocks Î”Mt and Î”Nt (i.e., so that immigration is associated with either no change or an increase in native employment). Borjas specifications employing this simulated data estimate large and significantly negative coefficients as long as the variance of Î”Nt is larger than the variance of Î”Mt, which is true in observed state-level and city-level data.
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- George J. Borjas, 2003. "The Labor Demand Curve is Downward Sloping: Reexamining the Impact of Immigration on the Labor Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 118(4), pages 1335-1374.
- George J. Borjas, 2003. "The Labor Demand Curve is Downward Sloping: Reexamining the Impact of Immigration on the Labor Market," NBER Working Papers 9755, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- George J. Borjas, 2006.
"Native Internal Migration and the Labor Market Impact of Immigration,"
Journal of Human Resources,
University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 41(2).
- George J. Borjas, 2005. "Native Internal Migration and the Labor Market Impact of Immigration," NBER Working Papers 11610, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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