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Smooth Trading with Overconfidence and Market Power

Author

Listed:
  • Albert S. Kyle

    (Robert H. Smith School of Business, University of Maryland)

  • Anna Obizhaeva

    (New Economic School)

  • Yajun Wang

    (Robert H. Smith School of Business, University of Maryland)

Abstract

We describe a symmetric continuous-time model of trading among relatively overconfident, oligopolistic informed traders with exponential utility. Traders agree to disagree about the precisions of their continuous flows of Gaussian private information. The price depends on a trader’s inventory (permanent price impact) and the derivative of a trader’s inventory (temporary price impact). More disagreement makes the market more liquid; without enough disagreement, there is no trade. Target inventories mean-revert at the same rate as private signals. Actual inventories smoothly adjust toward target inventories at an endogenous rate which increases with disagreement. Faster-than-equilibrium trading generates “flash crashes” by increasing temporary price impact. A “Keynesian beauty contest” dampens price fluctuations.

Suggested Citation

  • Albert S. Kyle & Anna Obizhaeva & Yajun Wang, 2016. "Smooth Trading with Overconfidence and Market Power," Working Papers w0226, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
    • Handle: RePEc:cfr:cefirw:w0226
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    JEL classification:

    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
    • D43 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection
    • D47 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Market Design
    • G02 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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