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The Noise is in The Mind: Existence of Trading Equilibria with Transparent Prices

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Abstract

We investigate the behavioral foundations of informed trade. We extend the canonical (Kyle, 1989) model to allow for wide range of misperception about the information environment (e.g. overconfidence and correlation delusion) as well as the market clearing condition (e.g. understatement of individual impact) and ask when a trading equilibrium can exist. We show that existence requires either i) the market clearing rule being perceived with (cognitive) noise of arbitrary size, or ii) sufficiently strong misperceptions that lead traders to overestimate the precision of their private information (relative to that of others) or underestimate their market impact. Following i) provides a cognitive foundation for the noise trader approach, while ii) yields a highly tractable linear model of (sufficiently) biased traders. Fixing the bias, a higher number of traders is beneficial for existence, though the economy is typically discontinuous in the countable-trader limit. In the latter case, equilibrium is characterized by limit uncertainty, a property which is satisfied if and only if traders perceive some correlation in their competitors’ information.

Suggested Citation

  • Franz Ostrizek & Elia Sartori, 2024. "The Noise is in The Mind: Existence of Trading Equilibria with Transparent Prices," CSEF Working Papers 730, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    • Handle: RePEc:sef:csefwp:730
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Terrance Odean., 1996. "Volume, Volatility, Price and Profit When All Trader Are Above Average," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-266, University of California at Berkeley.
    2. Albert S Kyle & Anna A Obizhaeva & Yajun Wang, 2018. "Smooth Trading with Overconfidence and Market Power," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 85(1), pages 611-662.
    3. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-1335, November.
    4. Erik Eyster & Matthew Rabin & Dimitri Vayanos, 2019. "Financial Markets Where Traders Neglect the Informational Content of Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 74(1), pages 371-399, February.
    5. Albert S. Kyle, 1989. "Informed Speculation with Imperfect Competition," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 56(3), pages 317-355.
    6. Snehal Banerjee, 2011. "Learning from Prices and the Dispersion in Beliefs," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(9), pages 3025-3068.
    7. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:6:p:1887-1934 is not listed on IDEAS
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    tax compliance; enforcement; evasion; audit; disclosure; firm; bunching.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D04 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Microeconomic Policy: Formulation; Implementation; Evaluation
    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • H24 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies
    • H25 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Business Taxes and Subsidies
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance
    • H32 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Firm

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