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Learning from Prices and the Dispersion in Beliefs

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  • Snehal Banerjee

Abstract

The article develops a dynamic model that nests the rational expectations (RE) and differences of opinion (DO) approaches to study how investors use prices to update their valuations. When investors condition on prices (RE), investor disagreement is related positively to expected returns, return volatility, and market beta, but negatively to return autocorrelation. When investors do not use prices (DO), these relations are reversed. Tests of these predictions on the cross-section of stocks using analyst forecast dispersion and volume as proxies for disagreement provide empirical evidence that is consistent with investors using prices on average. The Author 2011. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Society for Financial Studies. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com., Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Snehal Banerjee, 2011. "Learning from Prices and the Dispersion in Beliefs," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(9), pages 3025-3068.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:24:y:2011:i:9:p:3025-3068
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rfs/hhr050
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    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Huijun & Yan, Jinghua & Yu, Jianfeng, 2017. "Reference-dependent preferences and the risk–return trade-off," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(2), pages 395-414.
    2. Banerjee, Snehal & Green, Brett, 2015. "Signal or noise? Uncertainty and learning about whether other traders are informed," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(2), pages 398-423.
    3. Alp Simsek, 2012. "Speculation and Risk Sharing with New Financial Assets," 2012 Meeting Papers 71, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Cespa, Giovanni & Vives, Xavier, 2011. "Expectations, Liquidity, and Short-term Trading," CEPR Discussion Papers 8303, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Sato, Yuki, 2016. "Delegated portfolio management, optimal fee contracts, and asset prices," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 360-389.
    6. Wei Xiong, 2013. "Bubbles, Crises, and Heterogeneous Beliefs," NBER Working Papers 18905, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Giovanni Cespa & Xavier Vives, 2015. "The Beauty Contest and Short-Term Trading," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(5), pages 2099-2154, October.
    8. Sheng, Xuguang (Simon) & Thevenot, Maya, 2015. "Quantifying differential interpretation of public information using financial analysts’ earnings forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 515-530.
    9. Christian Hellwig & Aleh Tsyvinski & Elias Albagli, 2014. "Dynamic Dispersed Information and the Credit Spread Puzzle," 2014 Meeting Papers 808, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    10. Füllbrunn, Sascha & Rau, Holger A. & Weitzel, Utz, 2014. "Does ambiguity aversion survive in experimental asset markets?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 107(PB), pages 810-826.
    11. Dutta, Sunil & Nezlobin, Alexander, 2017. "Information disclosure, firm growth, and the cost of capital," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(2), pages 415-431.
    12. Carlin, Bruce I. & Longstaff, Francis A. & Matoba, Kyle, 2014. "Disagreement and asset prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 226-238.
    13. Hoffmann, Arvid O.I. & Post, Thomas & Pennings, Joost M.E., 2013. "Individual investor perceptions and behavior during the financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 60-74.
    14. Andrei, Daniel & Cujean, Julien, 2017. "Information percolation, momentum and reversal," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(3), pages 617-645.
    15. repec:eee:pacfin:v:45:y:2017:i:c:p:174-185 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Erik Eyster & Matthew Rabin & Dimitri Vayanos, 2015. "Financial Markets where Traders Neglect the Informational Content of Prices," NBER Working Papers 21224, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. He, Xue-Zhong & Shi, Lei, 2017. "Index portfolio and welfare analysis under heterogeneous beliefs," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 64-79.
    18. Albagli, Elias, 2015. "Investment horizons and asset prices under asymmetric information," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 158(PB), pages 787-837.
    19. Chou, Hsin-I & Li, Baibing & Yin, Xiangkang & Zhao, Jing, 2017. "Variables in dollar terms versus in rate terms: The case of market feedback on merger negotiations," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 138-145.
    20. Bruce I. Carlin & Francis A. Longstaff & Kyle Matoba, 2012. "Disagreement and Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 18619, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Atmaz, Adem & Basak, Suleyman, 2017. "Belief Dispersion in the Stock Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 12056, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    22. Elías Albagli, 2013. "Investment Horizons and Asset Prices under Asymmetric Information," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 709, Central Bank of Chile.

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