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Smooth Trading with Overconfidence and Market Power

Author

Listed:
  • Albert S. Kyle

    (Robert H. Smith School of Business, University of Maryland)

  • Anna Obizhaeva

    (New Economic School)

  • Yajun Wang

    (Robert H. Smith School of Business, University of Maryland)

Abstract

We describe a symmetric continuous-time model of trading among relatively overconfident, oligopolistic informed traders with exponential utility. Traders agree to disagree about the precisions of their continuous flows of Gaussian private information. The price depends on a trader’s inventory (permanent price impact) and the derivative of a trader’s inventory (temporary price impact). More disagreement makes the market more liquid; without enough disagreement, there is no trade. Target inventories mean-revert at the same rate as private signals. Actual inventories smoothly adjust toward target inventories at an endogenous rate which increases with disagreement. Faster-than-equilibrium trading generates “flash crashes” by increasing temporary price impact. A “Keynesian beauty contest” dampens price fluctuations.

Suggested Citation

  • Albert S. Kyle & Anna Obizhaeva & Yajun Wang, 2016. "Smooth Trading with Overconfidence and Market Power," Working Papers w0226, New Economic School (NES).
    • Handle: RePEc:abo:neswpt:w0226
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    File URL: https://www.nes.ru/files/Preprints-resh/WP226.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Franz Ostrizek & Elia Sartori, 2024. "The Noise is in The Mind: Existence of Trading Equilibria with Transparent Prices," CSEF Working Papers 730, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    2. Albert S. Kyle & Anna A. Obizhaeva & Yajun Wang, 2023. "Beliefs Aggregation and Return Predictability," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(1), pages 427-486, February.
    3. Cujean, Julien & Bustamante, Maria Cecilia & Frésard, Laurent, 2019. "Knowledge Cycles and Corporate Investment," CEPR Discussion Papers 14152, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    4. Baldauf, Markus & Frei, Christoph & Mollner, Joshua, 2024. "Block trade contracting," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    5. Hong Liu & Shuaijie Qian & Jing Xu, 2025. "Optimal Trading with Speed-Dependent Transaction Cost Rates: A Flexible Framework," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 73(6), pages 2933-2952, November.
    6. Lou, Youcheng & Yang, Yaqing, 2023. "Information linkages in a financial market with imperfect competition," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    7. Albert S. Kyle & Anna Obizhaeva & Yajun Wang, 2016. "Beliefs Aggregation and Return Predictability," Working Papers w0231, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
    8. Michail Anthropelos & Scott Robertson & Konstantinos Spiliopoulos, 2018. "Optimal Investment, Demand and Arbitrage under Price Impact," Papers 1804.09151, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2018.
    9. Filippou, Ilias & Maurer, Thomas A. & Pezzo, Luca & Taylor, Mark P., 2024. "Importance of transaction costs for asset allocation in foreign exchange markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    10. Michail Anthropelos & Constantinos Kardaras & Georgios Vichos, 2020. "Effective risk aversion in thin risk‐sharing markets," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(4), pages 1565-1590, October.
    11. Michail Anthropelos & Scott Robertson & Konstantinos Spiliopoulos, 2021. "Optimal investment, derivative demand, and arbitrage under price impact," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 3-35, January.
    12. Lou, Youcheng & Rahi, Rohit, 2023. "Information, market power and welfare," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 120479, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    13. Lou, Youcheng & Rahi, Rohit, 2021. "Information, market power and welfare," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118843, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    14. Sudhanshu Pani, 2020. "A Theory of 'Auction as a Search' in speculative markets," Papers 2006.00775, arXiv.org.
    15. Stepan Gorban & Anna A. Obizhaeva & Yajun Wang, 2020. "Trading in Crowded Markets," Working Papers w0275, New Economic School (NES).
    16. Lou, Youcheng & Rahi, Rohit, 2023. "Information, market power and welfare," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    17. Suchismita Mishra & Le Zhao, 2021. "Order Routing Decisions for a Fragmented Market: A Review," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-32, November.
    18. Eric Budish & Peter Cramton & Albert S. Kyle & Jeongmin Lee & David Malec, 2022. "Flow Trading," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 146, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
      • Eric Budish & Peter Cramton & Albert S. Kyle & Jeongmin Lee & David Malec, 2023. "Flow Trading," NBER Working Papers 31098, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Rahi, Rohit, 2021. "Information acquisition with heterogeneous valuations," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    20. Eric Budish & Robin S. Lee & John J. Shim, 2024. "A Theory of Stock Exchange Competition and Innovation: Will the Market Fix the Market?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 132(4), pages 1209-1246.
    21. Puru Gupta & Saul D. Jacka, 2023. "Portfolio Choice In Dynamic Thin Markets: Merton Meets Cournot," Papers 2309.16047, arXiv.org.
    22. Fabrice Rousseau & Herve Boco & Laurent Germain, 2020. "When Overconfident Traders Meet Feedback Traders - Updated from 2016," Economics Department Working Paper Series n270-16.pdf, Department of Economics, National University of Ireland - Maynooth.
    23. Guo, Mng, 2023. "Dampening effect and market efficiency," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    24. Frei, Christoph & Mitra, Joshua, 2021. "Optimal closing benchmarks," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 40(C).
    25. Kyle, Albert S. & Obizhaeva, Anna A. & Tuzun, Tugkan, 2020. "Microstructure invariance in U.S. stock market trades," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).

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    JEL classification:

    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
    • D43 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection
    • D47 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Market Design
    • G02 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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