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Recessions and Occupational Match Quality: The Role of Age, Gender, and Education

Author

Listed:
  • John T. Addison
  • Liwen Chen
  • Orgul D. Ozturk

Abstract

Although the adverse labor market effects of economic recessions have been well documented, a notable omission in the literature is how recessions impact workers’ job match quality. This paper considers the short and longer-term losses in productivity associated with the job changing brought in train by the two most recent recessions. Changes in match quality are the mechanism, with dislocated workers being reemployed in jobs for which they are more mismatched. Using monthly data from the 1979 and 1997 cohorts of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth and the Current Population Survey (CPS), we document direct changes in occupational match quality and the associated changes in wages. We first investigate how workers’ match qualities change over the lifecycle and report that the total amount of mismatch averaged over all workers of the younger cohort actually decreased through time. For the older cohort, we then explore the role of age, education, gender, and occupational task groups. Economic recessions are shown to disproportionately harm the match quality of mid-aged workers versus that of young workers; to have more serious consequences for the match quality of men than women, especially highly educated men; and lead to occupational polarization, thereby amplifying the skill mismatch of mid-aged workers.

Suggested Citation

  • John T. Addison & Liwen Chen & Orgul D. Ozturk, 2020. "Recessions and Occupational Match Quality: The Role of Age, Gender, and Education," CESifo Working Paper Series 8390, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8390
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hannes Schwandt & Till von Wachter, 2019. "Unlucky Cohorts: Estimating the Long-Term Effects of Entering the Labor Market in a Recession in Large Cross-Sectional Data Sets," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 37(S1), pages 161-198.
    2. Kahn, Lisa B., 2010. "The long-term labor market consequences of graduating from college in a bad economy," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 303-316, April.
    3. Garibaldi, Pietro & Gomes, Pedro Maia & Sopraseuth, Thepthida, 2020. "Output Costs of Education and Skill Mismatch," IZA Discussion Papers 12974, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Michael W. L. Elsby & Donggyun Shin & Gary Solon, 2016. "Wage Adjustment in the Great Recession and Other Downturns: Evidence from the United States and Great Britain," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(S1), pages 249-291.
    5. Hilary Hoynes & Douglas L. Miller & Jessamyn Schaller, 2012. "Who Suffers during Recessions?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 27-48, Summer.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    recessions; match quality; mismatch; wage loss; mid-career effects; mancessions; downskilling;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs

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