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Globalization in the Time of Covid-19

Author

Listed:
  • Alessandro Sforza
  • Marina Steininger

Abstract

The economic effects of a pandemic crucially depend on the extent to which countries are connected in global production networks. In this paper we incorporate production barriers induced by Covid-19 shock into a Ricardian model with sectoral linkages, trade in intermediate goods and sectoral heterogeneity in production. We use the model to quantify the welfare effect of the disruption in production that started in China and quickly spread across the world. We find that the Covid-19 shock has a considerable impact on most economies in the world, especially when a share of the labor force is quarantined. Moreover, we show that global production linkages have a clear role in magnifying the effect of the production shock. Finally, we show that the economic effects of the Covid-19 shock are heterogeneous across sectors, regions and countries, depending on the geographic distribution of industries in each region and country and their degree of integration in the global production network.

Suggested Citation

  • Alessandro Sforza & Marina Steininger, 2020. "Globalization in the Time of Covid-19," CESifo Working Paper Series 8184, CESifo.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8184
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    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > Covid-19 > Economic consequences

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    Cited by:

    1. Rajneesh Narula, 2020. "Policy opportunities and challenges from the COVID-19 pandemic for economies with large informal sectors," Journal of International Business Policy, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 3(3), pages 302-310, September.
    2. Robert J. R. Elliott & Ingmar Schumacher & Cees Withagen, 2020. "Suggestions for a Covid-19 Post-Pandemic Research Agenda in Environmental Economics," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 76(4), pages 1187-1213, August.
    3. Andrea Coveri & Claudio Cozza & Leopoldo Nascia & Antonello Zanfei, 2020. "Supply chain contagion and the role of industrial policy," Economia e Politica Industriale: Journal of Industrial and Business Economics, Springer;Associazione Amici di Economia e Politica Industriale, vol. 47(3), pages 467-482, September.
    4. Hanming Fang & Chunmian Ge & Hanwei Huang & Hongbin Li, 2020. "Pandemics, global supply chains and local labor demand: evidence from 100 million posted jobs in China," CEP Discussion Papers dp1730, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    5. Peter Eppinger & Gabriel J. Felbermayr & Oliver Krebs & Bohdan Kukharskyy, 2020. "Covid-19 Shocking Global Value Chains," CESifo Working Paper Series 8572, CESifo.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Covid-19 shock; globalization; production barrier; sectoral interrelations; computational general equilibrium;

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F11 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Neoclassical Models of Trade
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F60 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - General

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