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Early Warning System for Economic and Financial Risks in Kazakhstan

  • Biswa N. Bhattacharyay
  • Dennis Dlugosch
  • Benedikt Kolb
  • Kajal Lahiri
  • Irshat Mukhametov
  • Gernot Nerb

    ()

This paper proposes a macro-prudential financial soundness analysis that can be used by most developing and transformation countries with or without crisis experience as well as by developed countries with limited data. The objective is to detect economic and financial sector vulnerability, design appropriate remedial policy responses and undertake preventing actions to address vulnerabilities. The paper also discusses a process for identifying and compiling a set of leading macro-prudential indicators. The system will be tested using a case study referring to Kazakhstan.The main novelty of the study lies in designing composite indicators for the real economy, the banking sector, the overall financial sector and finally the international economic environment of Kazakhstan and in studying the interaction of these composite indicators. An additional innovation is the relatively extensive use of qualitative business survey data to monitor vulnerability or crises; these surveys are data which until now have not been used much in this area of research.

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File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/WP/WP-CESifo_Working_Papers/wp-cesifo-2009/wp-cesifo-2009-10/cesifo1_wp2832.pdf
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Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 2832.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2832
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  1. Salvatore, Dominick, 1999. "Could the Financial Crisis in East Asia Have Been Predicted?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 341-347, May.
  2. Hali J. Edison, 2000. "Do indicators of financial crises work? an evaluation of an early warning system," International Finance Discussion Papers 675, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  3. Berg, Andrew & Pattillo, Catherine, 1999. "Predicting currency crises:: The indicators approach and an alternative," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 561-586, August.
  4. Reinhart, Carmen & Goldstein, Morris & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Assessing financial vulnerability, an early warning system for emerging markets: Introduction," MPRA Paper 13629, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul & Reinhart, Carmen M., 1997. "Leading indicators of currency crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1852, The World Bank.
  6. E Philip Davis, 1999. "Financial data needs for macroprudential surveillance - What are the key indicators of risks to domestic financial stability?," Lectures, Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England, number 2, November.
  7. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-25, August.
  8. International Monetary Fund, 2002. "Financial Soundness Indicators; Analytical Aspects and Country Practices," IMF Occasional Papers 212, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Paul Louis Ceriel Hilbers & Alfredo Mario Leone & Mahinder Singh Gill & Owen Evens, 2000. "Macroprudential Indicators of Financial System Soundness," IMF Occasional Papers 192, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Chen, Shaohua & Ravallion, Martin, 2001. "How Did the World's Poorest Fare in the 1990s?," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 47(3), pages 283-300, September.
  11. Agenor, Pierre-Richard, 2001. "Benefits and costs of international financial integration : theory and facts," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2699, The World Bank.
  12. Andrew Berg & Eduardo Borensztein & Catherine Pattillo, 2005. "Assessing Early Warning Systems: How Have They Worked in Practice?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 52(3), pages 5.
  13. Michael Bordo & Barry Eichengreen & Daniela Klingebiel & Maria Soledad Martinez-Peria, 2001. "Is the crisis problem growing more severe?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 16(32), pages 51-82, 04.
  14. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1999. "The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance of payments problems," MPRA Paper 14081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  15. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1998. "On crises, contagion, and confusion," MPRA Paper 13709, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  16. M. Ayhan Kose & Kenneth Rogoff & Eswar Prasad & Shang-Jin Wei, 2003. "Effects of Financial Globalization on Developing Countries; Some Empirical Evidence," IMF Occasional Papers 220, International Monetary Fund.
  17. Maria Soledad Martinez Peria & Giovanni Majnoni & Matthew T. Jones & Winfrid Blaschke, 2001. "Stress Testing of Financial Systems; An Overview of Issues, Methodologies, and FSAP Experiences," IMF Working Papers 01/88, International Monetary Fund.
  18. Martin Cihak, 2004. "Stress Testing: A Review of Key Concepts," Research and Policy Notes 2004/02, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
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