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Measuring the Space Economy with Input-Output Linkages

Author

Listed:
  • Luisa Corrado
  • Christos Makridis
  • Christos A. Makridis

Abstract

Space-enabled technologies underpin communications, navigation, Earth observation, and critical infrastructure, but widely cited estimates of the space economy often rely on proprietary classifications or revenue tallies that abstract from production linkages. We develop a transparent, national-accounts framework to measure the U.S. footprint of a conservative set of core space industries using input-output total requirements tables with real gross output and value added by industry. The framework decomposes activity into direct core output and indirect spillovers through upstream suppliers and downstream users, and it produces measures of exposure and supplier concentration. Indirect activity exceeds direct activity in every benchmark year and grows faster over time: direct core output rises from just under $60B in 2007 to $75-80B by 2017, while the associated indirect component increases from about $80-85B to roughly $120-125B, implying an indirect to direct ratio near 1.6 by 2017. In projections to 2030 using an input-output consistent protocol with scenario wedges and Monte Carlo uncertainty bands, the baseline total footprint reaches about $350B.

Suggested Citation

  • Luisa Corrado & Christos Makridis & Christos A. Makridis, 2026. "Measuring the Space Economy with Input-Output Linkages," CESifo Working Paper Series 12449, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12449
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Julien Guyot & Akhil Rao & Sébastien Rouillon, 2023. "Oligopoly competition between satellite constellations will reduce economic welfare from orbit use," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 120(43), pages 2221343120-, October.
    2. Luisa Corrado & Stefano Grassi & Aldo Paolillo & Edgar Silgado-Gómez, 2023. "The macroeconomic spillovers from space activity," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 120(43), pages 2221342120-, October.
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    4. Matthew Weinzierl, 2023. "Expanding economic activity in space may offer a solution to secular stagnation," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 120(43), pages 2221347120-, October.
    5. Shawn Kantor & Alexander Whalley, 2025. "Moonshot: Public R&D and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 115(9), pages 2891-2925, September.
    6. Maxwell Fleming & Ian Lange & Sayeh Shojaeinia & Martin Stuermer, 2023. "Mining in space could spur sustainable growth," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 120(43), pages 2221345120-, October.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Input-Output Models
    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • L16 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Industrial Organization and Macroeconomics; Macroeconomic Industrial Structure
    • L52 - Industrial Organization - - Regulation and Industrial Policy - - - Industrial Policy; Sectoral Planning Methods
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • O38 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Government Policy

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