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Moonshot: Public R&D and Growth

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  • Shawn Kantor
  • Alexander Whalley

Abstract

We estimate the long-term effect of public R&D on growth in manufacturing by analyzing new data from the Cold War-era space race. We develop a novel empirical strategy that leverages US-Soviet rivalry in space technology to isolate windfall R&D spending. Our results demonstrate that public R&D conducted by NASA contractors increased manufacturing value added, employment, and capital accumulation in space-related sectors. While migration responses were important, they were not sufficient to generate a wedge between local and national effects. The iconic moonshot R&D program had only modest economic effects for both the local and national space-related sectors.

Suggested Citation

  • Shawn Kantor & Alexander Whalley, 2025. "Moonshot: Public R&D and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 115(9), pages 2891-2925, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:115:y:2025:i:9:p:2891-2925
    DOI: 10.1257/aer.20220540
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Taylor Jaworski & Carl T. Kitchens, 2019. "National Policy for Regional Development: Historical Evidence from Appalachian Highways," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(5), pages 777-790, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Choi, Jaedo & Levchenko, Andrei A., 2025. "The long-term effects of industrial policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    2. Chiappinelli, Olga & Giuffrida, Leonardo M. & Spagnolo, Giancarlo, 2025. "Public procurement as an innovation policy: Where do we stand?," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    3. Andrea Recine & Massimiliano Tancioni, 2025. "Macroeconomic Effects of Government Defense and Non-Defense R&D," Working Papers in Public Economics 262, Department of Economics and Law, Sapienza University of Roma.
    4. Yanagiura, Takeshi & Tateishi, Shinji, 2024. "Local economic impact of small, non-research private universities: evidence from Japan," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    5. Magnus Henrekson & Christian Sandström & Mikael Stenkula, 2024. "Learning from Overrated Mission-Oriented Innovation Policies: Seven Takeaways," International Studies in Entrepreneurship, in: Magnus Henrekson & Christian Sandström & Mikael Stenkula (ed.), Moonshots and the New Industrial Policy, pages 235-255, Springer.
    6. Magnus Henrekson & Christian Sandström & Mikael Stenkula, 2024. "Moonshots and the New Industrial Policy: Questioning the Mission Economy," International Studies in Entrepreneurship, in: Magnus Henrekson & Christian Sandström & Mikael Stenkula (ed.), Moonshots and the New Industrial Policy, pages 3-28, Springer.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • H54 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Infrastructures
    • L60 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - General
    • N12 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-
    • N42 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-
    • N62 - Economic History - - Manufacturing and Construction - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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