IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cep/stidar/30.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

On the Non-Stationarity of German Income Mobility (and some observations on poverty dynamics)

Author

Listed:
  • Christian Schluter

Abstract

The intra-distributional mobility of German income dynamics is analysed using GSOEP. Transition probabilities are found to be time-varying. The tested models comprise various mixed Markov chains in discrete time and a non-stationary mover-stayer model is proposed. In order to explain the observed mobility profiles, we concentrate on one important income class - the poor - instead of the entire transition matrix. Various poverty duration models accommodating unobserved population heterogeneity and duration dependence are examined.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Schluter, 1997. "On the Non-Stationarity of German Income Mobility (and some observations on poverty dynamics)," STICERD - Distributional Analysis Research Programme Papers 30, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
  • Handle: RePEc:cep:stidar:30
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://sticerd.lse.ac.uk/dps/darp/darp30.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael J. Boskin & Frederick C. Nold, 1975. "A Markov Model of Turnover in Aid to Families with Dependent Children," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 10(4), pages 467-481.
    2. Jenkins, Stephen P, 1995. "Easy Estimation Methods for Discrete-Time Duration Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 57(1), pages 129-138, February.
    3. Richard V. Burkhauser & Timothy M. Smeeding & Joachim Merz, 1996. "Relative Inequality And Poverty In Germany And The United States Using Alternative Equivalence Scales," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 42(4), pages 381-400, December.
    4. Bound, John & Krueger, Alan B, 1991. "The Extent of Measurement Error in Longitudinal Earnings Data: Do Two Wrongs Make a Right?," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 9(1), pages 1-24, January.
    5. Burton Singer & Seymour Spilerman, 1976. "Some Methodological Issues in the Analysis of Longitudinal Surveys," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 5, number 4, pages 447-474, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Schmidt, Peter & Witte, Ann Dryden, 1989. "Predicting criminal recidivism using 'split population' survival time models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 141-159, January.
    7. Ruggles, Patricia & Williams, Roberton, 1989. "Longitudinal Measures of Poverty: Accounting for Income and Assets over Time," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 35(3), pages 225-243, September.
    8. Pischke, Jorn-Steffen, 1995. "Measurement Error and Earnings Dynamics: Some Estimates from the PSID Validation Study," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 305-314, July.
    9. Christian Schluter, 1996. "Income Distribution and Inequality in Germany: Evidence from Panel Data," STICERD - Distributional Analysis Research Programme Papers 16, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
    10. Heckman, James J. & Singer, Burton, 1984. "Econometric duration analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 63-132.
    11. Trede, Mark M., 1994. "Statistical inference in mobility measurement: Sex differences in earnings mobility," Discussion Papers in Econometrics and Statistics 4/94, University of Cologne, Institute of Econometrics and Statistics.
    12. Christian Schluter, 1996. "Income Mobility in Germany: Evidence from Panel Data," STICERD - Distributional Analysis Research Programme Papers 17, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
    13. John J. McCall, 1971. "A Markovian of Income Dynamics," UCLA Economics Working Papers 011, UCLA Department of Economics.
    14. Geweke, John & Marshall, Robert C & Zarkin, Gary A, 1986. "Mobility Indices in Continuous Time Markov Chains," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(6), pages 1407-1423, November.
    15. Lancaster, Tony, 1979. "Econometric Methods for the Duration of Unemployment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(4), pages 939-956, July.
    16. Patricia Ruggles & Roberton Williams, 1989. "Longitudinal Measures Of Poverty: Accounting For Income And Assets Over Time," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 35(3), pages 225-243, September.
    17. Shorrocks, A F, 1978. "The Measurement of Mobility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(5), pages 1013-1024, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. PEREZ MAYO Jésus, 2004. "Consistent poverty dynamics in Spain," IRISS Working Paper Series 2004-09, IRISS at CEPS/INSTEAD.
    2. Francesco Devicienti, 2011. "Estimating poverty persistence in Britain," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 40(3), pages 657-686, May.
    3. Pérez-Mayo, Jesús, 2009. "Un análisis dinámico de la privación en España /A Dynamic Analysis of Deprivation for Spain," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 27, pages 501-522, Agosto.
    4. Olga Cant⊙, 2000. "Income Mobility In Spain: How Much Is There?," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 46(1), pages 85-102, March.
    5. Francesco Devicienti, 2002. "Poverty persistence in Britain: A multivariate analysis using the BHPS, 1991–1997," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 77(1), pages 307-340, December.
    6. Sheldon Danziger & Markus Jäntti, 1999. "Income Poverty in Advanced Countries," LIS Working papers 193, LIS Cross-National Data Center in Luxembourg.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bijwaard, Govert, 2011. "Unobserved Heterogeneity in Multiple-Spell Multiple-States Duration Models," IZA Discussion Papers 5748, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Ruiz-Castillo, Javier, 1997. "Income mobility, permutations, and rerankings," UC3M Working papers. Economics 6070, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    3. Hess, Wolfgang & Persson, Maria, 2010. "The Duration of Trade Revisited. Continuous-Time vs. Discrete-Time Hazards," Working Papers 2010:1, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    4. Denis Fougère & Thierry Kamionka, 2003. "Bayesian inference for the mover-stayer model in continuous time with an application to labour market transition data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(6), pages 697-723.
    5. Nicoletti, Cheti & Rondinelli, Concetta, 2010. "The (mis)specification of discrete duration models with unobserved heterogeneity: A Monte Carlo study," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 159(1), pages 1-13, November.
    6. Hess, Wolfgang & Persson, Maria, 2009. "Survival and Death in International Trade - Discrete-Time Durations of EU Imports," Working Papers 2009:12, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    7. Francisco Azpitarte, 2010. "Measuring poverty using both income and wealth: A cross-country comparison between the U.S. and Spain," Working Papers 153, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
    8. Danny Quah, 1996. "Aggregate and Regional Disaggregate Fluctuations," CEP Discussion Papers dp0275, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    9. Nicoletti, Cheti & Rondinelli, Concetta, 2006. "The (mis)specification of discrete time duration models with unobserved heterogenity: a Monte Carlo study," ISER Working Paper Series 2006-53, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    10. Marchand, J. & Smeeding, T., 2016. "Poverty and Aging," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 905-950, Elsevier.
      • Marchand, Joseph & Smeeding, Timothy, 2016. "Poverty and Aging," Working Papers 2016-11, University of Alberta, Department of Economics, revised 20 Nov 2016.
    11. Ravallion, Martin & van de Walle, Dominique & Gautam, Madhur, 1995. "Testing a social safety net," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 175-199, June.
    12. Francisco Azpitarte, 2014. "Measuring Poverty using both Income and Wealth: A Cross-Country Comparison between the U.S. and Spain," LWS Working papers 18, LIS Cross-National Data Center in Luxembourg.
    13. Peter Gottschalk & Minh Huynh, 2010. "Are Earnings Inequality and Mobility Overstated? The Impact of Nonclassical Measurement Error," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(2), pages 302-315, May.
    14. Caroline Krafft, 2020. "Why is fertility on the rise in Egypt? The role of women’s employment opportunities," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 33(4), pages 1173-1218, October.
    15. Vygodina, Anna V. & Zorn, Thomas S. & DeFusco, Richard, 2008. "Asymmetry in the effects of economic fundamentals on rising and falling exchange rates," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 728-746, September.
    16. Francisco Azpitarte, 2011. "Measurement and identification of asset-poor households: a cross-national comparison of Spain and the United Kingdom," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 9(1), pages 87-110, March.
    17. de Figueiredo, Erik Alencar & Ziegelmann, Flávio Augusto, 2010. "Estimating income mobility using census data," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(21), pages 4897-4903.
    18. Malcolm Keswell, 2004. "Non‐Linear Earnings Dynamics In Post‐Apartheid South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 72(5), pages 913-939, December.
    19. Frank A Cowell & Christian Schluter, 1998. "Measuring Income Mobility with Dirty Data (published in Ethnic and Racial Studies, 22(3), May 1999)," CASE Papers 016, Centre for Analysis of Social Exclusion, LSE.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Intra-distributional mobility; Markovian models; time-varying transition probabilities; poverty.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cep:stidar:30. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://sticerd.lse.ac.uk/_new/publications/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://sticerd.lse.ac.uk/_new/publications/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.