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On the Non-Stationarity of German Income Mobility (and Some Observations on Poverty Dynamics)

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  • Schluter, C

Abstract

The intra-distributional mobility of German income dynamics is analysed using GSOEP. Transition probabilities are found to be time-varying. The tested models comprise various mixed Markov chains in discrete time and a non-stationary mover-stayer model is proposed. In order to explain the observed mobility profiles, we concentrate on one important income class -the poor- instead of the entire transition matrix. Various poverty duration models are examined.

Suggested Citation

  • Schluter, C, 1996. "On the Non-Stationarity of German Income Mobility (and Some Observations on Poverty Dynamics)," Economics Working Papers eco96/35, European University Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:eui:euiwps:eco96/35
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    1. Michael J. Boskin & Frederick C. Nold, 1975. "A Markov Model of Turnover in Aid to Families with Dependent Children," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 10(4), pages 467-481.
    2. Jenkins, Stephen P, 1995. "Easy Estimation Methods for Discrete-Time Duration Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 57(1), pages 129-138, February.
    3. Richard V. Burkhauser & Timothy M. Smeeding & Joachim Merz, 1996. "Relative Inequality And Poverty In Germany And The United States Using Alternative Equivalence Scales," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 42(4), pages 381-400, December.
    4. Bound, John & Krueger, Alan B, 1991. "The Extent of Measurement Error in Longitudinal Earnings Data: Do Two Wrongs Make a Right?," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 9(1), pages 1-24, January.
    5. Burton Singer & Seymour Spilerman, 1976. "Some Methodological Issues in the Analysis of Longitudinal Surveys," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 5, number 4, pages 447-474, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Schmidt, Peter & Witte, Ann Dryden, 1989. "Predicting criminal recidivism using 'split population' survival time models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 141-159, January.
    7. repec:bla:revinw:v:35:y:1989:i:3:p:225-43 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Pischke, Jorn-Steffen, 1995. "Measurement Error and Earnings Dynamics: Some Estimates from the PSID Validation Study," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 305-314, July.
    9. Christian Schluter, 1996. "Income Distribution and Inequality in Germany: Evidence from Panel Data," STICERD - Distributional Analysis Research Programme Papers 16, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
    10. Heckman, James J. & Singer, Burton, 1984. "Econometric duration analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 63-132.
    11. Trede, Mark M., 1994. "Statistical inference in mobility measurement: Sex differences in earnings mobility," Discussion Papers in Econometrics and Statistics 4/94, University of Cologne, Institute of Econometrics and Statistics.
    12. Christian Schluter, 1996. "Income Mobility in Germany: Evidence from Panel Data," STICERD - Distributional Analysis Research Programme Papers 17, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
    13. John J. McCall, 1971. "A Markovian of Income Dynamics," UCLA Economics Working Papers 011, UCLA Department of Economics.
    14. Geweke, John & Marshall, Robert C & Zarkin, Gary A, 1986. "Mobility Indices in Continuous Time Markov Chains," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(6), pages 1407-1423, November.
    15. Lancaster, Tony, 1979. "Econometric Methods for the Duration of Unemployment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(4), pages 939-956, July.
    16. Patricia Ruggles & Roberton Williams, 1989. "Longitudinal Measures Of Poverty: Accounting For Income And Assets Over Time," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 35(3), pages 225-243, September.
    17. Shorrocks, A F, 1978. "The Measurement of Mobility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(5), pages 1013-1024, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. PEREZ MAYO Jésus, 2004. "Consistent poverty dynamics in Spain," IRISS Working Paper Series 2004-09, IRISS at CEPS/INSTEAD.
    2. Francesco Devicienti, 2011. "Estimating poverty persistence in Britain," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 40(3), pages 657-686, May.
    3. Pérez-Mayo, Jesús, 2009. "Un análisis dinámico de la privación en España /A Dynamic Analysis of Deprivation for Spain," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 27, pages 501-522, Agosto.
    4. Olga Cant⊙, 2000. "Income Mobility In Spain: How Much Is There?," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 46(1), pages 85-102, March.
    5. Francesco Devicienti, 2002. "Poverty persistence in Britain: A multivariate analysis using the BHPS, 1991–1997," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 77(1), pages 307-340, December.
    6. Sheldon Danziger & Markus Jäntti, 1999. "Income Poverty in Advanced Countries," LIS Working papers 193, LIS Cross-National Data Center in Luxembourg.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    GERMANY ; INCOME DISTRIBUTION ; POVERTY;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty

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