The dynamics of deforestation and reforestation in a developing economy

Forest transition theory is often used to describe the long term evolution of forest cover in a country as it develops, yet previous theoretical work has considered only net forest cover change when describing deforestation. However, little work exists describing the dynamics involved in forest cover change, particularly the relationship between reductions in primary native forests commonly associated with deforestation and concomitant reforestation and establishment of secondary forest plantations,. We examine this distinction and formulate a new forest transition hypothesis. Our approach recognizes that primary and secondary forests are imperfect substitutes in terms of ecosystem services, but also in the costs associated with securing tenure. The latter is important given the property rights insecurities that have led to deforestation in many tropical countries. Our model allows a study of both the length of a forest transition and the speed at which net forest depletion eventually ends in the long run. Understanding the forest transition as we describe it could be important for future climate change mitigation policies. For instance, we find that privileging the dynamics of reforestation can be harmful for primary native forests, which are known to have the highest ecological value.