Forest harvest intensification and expansion : Modeling land-use change in heterogeneous regions

Recent bioenergy policies have led to an increase in wood demand, the use of which is linked to sustainability and climate change objectives. However, balancing climate mitigation and wood harvest involves land use competition among sectors (e.g. agriculture vs forestry) and within sectors (e.g. resource exploitation and conservation). By developing a theoretical model of natural resources management and conducting numerical simulations, we show how initial land allocation impacts forest expansion and intensification choices in two regions. In particular, we analyze optimal land allocation (between primary, secondary forest and agriculture) and timber harvest intensity under scenarios of increased wood demand, harvest restriction in primary forest and tree mortality, including quantifying the marginal rates of substitution between harvest intensity and forest expansion and between primary and secondary forest. The initial land allocation does not significantly affects forest management decisions. As wood demand increases, the profitability of wood production rises, resulting in a combination of deforestation and higher harvested volumes. In our model, secondary and primary forests behave as substitutes: secondary forests can be harvested in lieu of primary forest to meet timber demand. These findings underscore the need for sustainable harvesting practices and policies, especially as forest resources face growing pressure from climate change, rising timber demand, and regulatory constraints.