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Time irreversible copula-based Markov Models

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  • Beare, Brendan K.
  • Seo, Juwon

Abstract

Economic and financial time series frequently exhibit time irreversible dynamics. For instance, there is considerable evidence of asymmetric fluctuations in many macroeconomic and financial variables, and certain game theoretic models of price determination predict asymmetric cycles in price series. In this paper we make two primary contributions to the econometric literature on time reversibility. First, we propose a new test of time reversibility, applicable to stationary Markov chains. Compared to existing tests, our test has the advantage of being consistent against arbitrary violations of reversibility. Second, we explain how a circulation density function may be used to characterize the nature of time irreversibility when it is present. We propose a copula-based estimator of the circulation density, and verify that it is well behaved asymptotically under suitable regularity conditions. We illustrate the use of our time reversibility test and circulation density estimator by applying them to five years of Canadian gasoline price markup data.

Suggested Citation

  • Beare, Brendan K. & Seo, Juwon, 2012. "Time irreversible copula-based Markov Models," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt31f8500p, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
  • Handle: RePEc:cdl:ucsdec:qt31f8500p
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Brendan K. Beare & Juwon Seo, 2015. "Vine Copula Specifications for Stationary Multivariate Markov Chains," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 228-246, March.
    2. Patton, Andrew J., 2012. "A review of copula models for economic time series," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 4-18.

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    Keywords

    Social and Behavioral Sciences; Markov chains; time irreversible dynamics; economic time series;

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