Time irreversible copula-based Markov Models
Economic and financial time series frequently exhibit time irreversible dynamics. For instance, there is considerable evidence of asymmetric fluctuations in many macroeconomic and financial variables, and certain game theoretic models of price determination predict asymmetric cycles in price series. In this paper we make two primary contributions to the econometric literature on time reversibility. First, we propose a new test of time reversibility, applicable to stationary Markov chains. Compared to existing tests, our test has the advantage of being consistent against arbitrary violations of reversibility. Second, we explain how a circulation density function may be used to characterize the nature of time irreversibility when it is present. We propose a copula-based estimator of the circulation density, and verify that it is well behaved asymptotically under suitable regularity conditions. We illustrate the use of our time reversibility test and circulation density estimator by applying them to five years of Canadian gasoline price markup data.
|Date of creation:||08 Apr 2012|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 9500 Gilman Drive, La Jolla, CA 92093-0508|
Phone: (858) 534-3383
Fax: (858) 534-7040
Web page: http://www.escholarship.org/repec/ucsdecon/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Andrew Eckert, 2002. "Retail price cycles and response asymmetry," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 35(1), pages 52-77, February.
- Sam Peltzman, 2000.
"Prices Rise Faster than They Fall,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(3), pages 466-502, June.
- Sam Peltzman, 1998. "Prices Rise Faster Than They Fall," University of Chicago - George G. Stigler Center for Study of Economy and State 142, Chicago - Center for Study of Economy and State.
- Serge Darolles & Jean-Pierre Florens & Christian Gourieroux, 2004.
"Kernel-based nonlinear canonical analysis and time reversibility,"
- Darolles, Serge & Florens, Jean-Pierre & Gourieroux, Christian, 2004. "Kernel-based nonlinear canonical analysis and time reversibility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 119(2), pages 323-353, April.
- Serge Darolles & Jean-Pierre Florens & Christian Gourieroux, 2000. "Kernel Based Nonlinear Canonical Analysis and Time Reversibility," Working Papers 2000-18, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
- Ramsey, J.B. & Rothman, P., 1993.
"Time Irreversibility and Business Cycle Asymmetry,"
93-39, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Neftci, Salih N, 1984. "Are Economic Time Series Asymmetric over the Business Cycle?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(2), pages 307-28, April.
- McCAUSLAND, William, 2004.
"Time Reversibility of Stationary Regular Finite State Markov Chains,"
Cahiers de recherche
2004-07, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- McCausland, William J., 2007. "Time reversibility of stationary regular finite-state Markov chains," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 136(1), pages 303-318, January.
- McCAUSLAND, William J., 2004. "Time Reversibility of Stationary Regular Finite State Markov Chains," Cahiers de recherche 09-2004, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- Cason, Timothy N. & Friedman, Daniel & Wagener, Florian, 2005.
"The dynamics of price dispersion, or Edgeworth variations,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 801-822, April.
- Cason, T. & Friedman, D. & Wagener, F.O.O., 2003. "The dynamics of price dispersion, or Edgeworth variations," CeNDEF Working Papers 03-11, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- Lewis, Matt & Noel, Michael, 2009.
"The Speed of Gasoline Price Response in Markets With and Without Edgeworth Cycles,"
University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series
qt8j36j1s1, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Matthew Lewis & Michael Noel, 2011. "The Speed of Gasoline Price Response in Markets with and without Edgeworth Cycles," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(2), pages 672-682, May.
- Chen, Yi-Ting & Chou, Ray Y. & Kuan, Chung-Ming, 2000. "Testing time reversibility without moment restrictions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 199-218, March.
- Chen, Xiaohong & Fan, Yanqin, 2006. "Estimation of copula-based semiparametric time series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 307-335, February.
- Xiaohong Chen & Wei Biao Wu & Yanping Yi, 2009. "Efficient Estimation of Copula-based Semiparametric Markov Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1691, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Mar 2009.
- P. Gagliardini & C. Gourieroux, 2008.
"Duration time-series models with proportional hazard,"
Journal of Time Series Analysis,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 74-124, 01.
- Patrick Gagliardini & Christian Gourieroux, 2002. "Duration Time Series Models with Proportional Hazard," Working Papers 2002-21, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
- Yi-Ting Chen & Chung-Ming Kuan, 2002. "Time irreversibility and EGARCH effects in US stock index returns," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(5), pages 565-578.
- Xiaohong Chen & Roger Koenker & Zhijie Xiao, 2008.
"Copula-based nonlinear quantile autoregression,"
CeMMAP working papers
CWP27/08, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
- Xiaohong Chen & Roger Koenker & Zhijie Xiao, 2008. "Copula-Based Nonlinear Quantile Autoregression," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1679, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Xiaohong Chen & Roger Koenker & Zhijie Xiao, 2008. "Copula-Based Nonlinear Quantile Autoregression," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 691, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Jean-David FERMANIAN & Olivier SCAILLET, 2003. "Nonparametric Estimation of Copulas for Time Series," FAME Research Paper Series rp57, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
- Michael D. Noel, 2008. "Edgeworth Price Cycles and Focal Prices: Computational Dynamic Markov Equilibria," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(2), pages 345-377, 06.
- Beare, Brendan K., 2010. "Archimedean Copulas and Temporal Dependence," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt0xh8q1g3, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Racine, Jeffrey S. & Maasoumi, Esfandiar, 2007. "A versatile and robust metric entropy test of time-reversibility, and other hypotheses," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 138(2), pages 547-567, June.
- Chen Yi-Ting, 2003. "Testing Serial Independence against Time Irreversibility," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(3), pages 1-30, October.
- Beare, Brendan K., 2012. "Archimedean Copulas And Temporal Dependence," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(06), pages 1165-1185, December.
- Mariano Tappata, 2009. "Rockets and feathers: Understanding asymmetric pricing," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 40(4), pages 673-687.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Hinich , Melvin J. & Rothman, Philip, 1998.
"Frequency-Domain Test Of Time Reversibility,"
Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(01), pages 72-88, March.
- Brendan K. Beare, 2010. "Copulas and Temporal Dependence," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 78(1), pages 395-410, 01.
- Nikolay Nenovsky & S. Statev, 2006. "Introduction," Post-Print halshs-00260898, HAL.
- Eric Bouye & Mark Salmon, 2009. "Dynamic copula quantile regressions and tail area dynamic dependence in Forex markets," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(7-8), pages 721-750.
- Rothman, Philip, 1988.
"Further Evidence On The Asymmetric Behavior Of Unemployment Rates Over The Business Cycle,"
88-23, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Rothman, Philip, 1991. "Further evidence on the asymmetric behavior of unemployment rates over the business cycle," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 291-298.
- Roger Nelsen, 2007. "Extremes of nonexchangeability," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 48(4), pages 695-695, October.
- repec:sae:ecolab:v:16:y:2006:i:2:p:1-2 is not listed on IDEAS
- Michael D. Noel, 2011. "Edgeworth price cycles," The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, Palgrave Macmillan.
- Zhongmin Wang, 2009. "(Mixed) Strategy in Oligopoly Pricing: Evidence from Gasoline Price Cycles Before and Under a Timing Regulation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 117(6), pages 987-1030, December.
- Zacharias Psaradakis, 2008. "Assessing Time-Reversibility Under Minimal Assumptions," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(5), pages 881-905, 09.
- Paparoditis, Efstathios & Politis, Dimitris N., 2001. "A Markovian Local Resampling Scheme For Nonparametric Estimators In Time Series Analysis," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(03), pages 540-566, June.
- Eckert, Andrew, 2003. "Retail price cycles and the presence of small firms," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 151-170, February.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cdl:ucsdec:qt31f8500p. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Lisa Schiff)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.