Time irreversibility and EGARCH effects in US stock index returns
In this paper we suggest using a modified version of the time reversibility (TR) test of Chen, Chou and Kuan (2000) as a complementary diagnostic test for time series models. The modified CCK test is easy to compute and requires weaker moment conditions than existing tests. Our simulations demonstrate that this test is powerful against asymmetry in volatility but the BDS test is not. In the empirical study of US stock index returns, we first find that these returns are all time irreversible. Applying the GARCH and EGARCH models to these returns, we also find that the Q and BDS tests always accept the null hypothesis and cannot distinguish between these models. By contrast, the modified CCK test accepts only the EGARCH model with an order that can accommodate the underlying asymmetry in volatility. Our results suggest that the detected time irreversibility in these return series may be attributed to volatility asymmetry and that such asymmetry may be captured using a proper EGARCH model. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Volume (Year): 17 (2002)
Issue (Month): 5 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/0883-7252/|
|Order Information:|| Web: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/jcatalog/subscribe.jsp?issn=0883-7252 Email: |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Engle, Robert F & Lilien, David M & Robins, Russell P, 1987. "Estimating Time Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure: The Arch-M Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 391-407, March.
- Brooks, Chris & Heravi, Saeed M, 1999. "The Effect of (Mis-Specified) GARCH Filters on the Finite Sample Distribution of the BDS Test," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 13(2), pages 147-62, April.
- Hinich , Melvin J. & Rothman, Philip, 1998.
"Frequency-Domain Test Of Time Reversibility,"
Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(01), pages 72-88, March.
- Rothman, P, 1992. "The Comparative Power of the TR Test against Simple Threshold Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages S187-95, Suppl. De.
- Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
- Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March.
- Hsieh, David A, 1989. "Testing for Nonlinear Dependence in Daily Foreign Exchange Rates," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(3), pages 339-68, July.
- Hsieh, David A., 1993. "Implications of Nonlinear Dynamics for Financial Risk Management," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(01), pages 41-64, March.
- Ramsey, J.B. & Rothman, P., 1993.
"Time Irreversibility and Business Cycle Asymmetry,"
93-39, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Hsieh, David A, 1991. " Chaos and Nonlinear Dynamics: Application to Financial Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1839-77, December.
- Brooks, C. & Henry, O.T., 1999.
"Can Portemanteau Nonlinearity Tests Serve as General Mis-Specification Tests? Evidence from Symmetric and Asymmetric GARCH Models,"
Department of Economics - Working Papers Series
723, The University of Melbourne.
- Brooks, Chris & Henry, Olan T., 2000. "Can portmanteau nonlinearity tests serve as general mis-specification tests?: Evidence from symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 245-251, June.
- Chen, Yi-Ting & Chou, Ray Y. & Kuan, Chung-Ming, 2000. "Testing time reversibility without moment restrictions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 199-218, March.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- A. Abhyankar & L. S. Copeland & W. Wong, 1995. "Moment condition failure in high frequency financial data: evidence from the S&P 500," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(8), pages 288-290.
- Lee, Sang-Won & Hansen, Bruce E., 1994. "Asymptotic Theory for the Garch(1,1) Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimator," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(01), pages 29-52, March.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:17:y:2002:i:5:p:565-578. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing)or (Christopher F. Baum)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.