IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/jae/japmet/v17y2002i5p565-578.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Time irreversibility and EGARCH effects in US stock index returns

Author

Listed:
  • Yi-Ting Chen

    (Institute for Social Sciences and Philosophy, Academia Sinica, Taipei 115, Taiwan)

  • Chung-Ming Kuan

    (Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taipei 115, Taiwan)

Abstract

In this paper we suggest using a modified version of the time reversibility (TR) test of Chen, Chou and Kuan (2000) as a complementary diagnostic test for time series models. The modified CCK test is easy to compute and requires weaker moment conditions than existing tests. Our simulations demonstrate that this test is powerful against asymmetry in volatility but the BDS test is not. In the empirical study of US stock index returns, we first find that these returns are all time irreversible. Applying the GARCH and EGARCH models to these returns, we also find that the Q and BDS tests always accept the null hypothesis and cannot distinguish between these models. By contrast, the modified CCK test accepts only the EGARCH model with an order that can accommodate the underlying asymmetry in volatility. Our results suggest that the detected time irreversibility in these return series may be attributed to volatility asymmetry and that such asymmetry may be captured using a proper EGARCH model. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Yi-Ting Chen & Chung-Ming Kuan, 2002. "Time irreversibility and EGARCH effects in US stock index returns," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(5), pages 565-578.
  • Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:17:y:2002:i:5:p:565-578
    DOI: 10.1002/jae.692
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/jae.692
    File Function: Link to full text; subscription required
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: http://qed.econ.queensu.ca:80/jae/2002-v17.5/
    File Function: Supporting data files and programs
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hinich , Melvin J. & Rothman, Philip, 1998. "Frequency-Domain Test Of Time Reversibility," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(01), pages 72-88, March.
    2. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-370, March.
    3. Lee, Sang-Won & Hansen, Bruce E., 1994. "Asymptotic Theory for the Garch(1,1) Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimator," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(01), pages 29-52, March.
    4. Brooks, Chris & Heravi, Saeed M, 1999. "The Effect of (Mis-Specified) GARCH Filters on the Finite Sample Distribution of the BDS Test," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 13(2), pages 147-162, April.
    5. Brooks, Chris & Henry, Olan T., 2000. "Can portmanteau nonlinearity tests serve as general mis-specification tests?: Evidence from symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 245-251, June.
    6. Hsieh, David A, 1989. "Testing for Nonlinear Dependence in Daily Foreign Exchange Rates," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(3), pages 339-368, July.
    7. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    8. Chen, Yi-Ting & Chou, Ray Y. & Kuan, Chung-Ming, 2000. "Testing time reversibility without moment restrictions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 199-218, March.
    9. Hsieh, David A, 1991. " Chaos and Nonlinear Dynamics: Application to Financial Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1839-1877, December.
    10. Ramsey, James B & Rothman, Philip, 1996. "Time Irreversibility and Business Cycle Asymmetry," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(1), pages 1-21, February.
    11. Rothman, P, 1992. "The Comparative Power of the TR Test against Simple Threshold Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages 187-195, Suppl. De.
    12. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
    13. Engle, Robert F & Lilien, David M & Robins, Russell P, 1987. "Estimating Time Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure: The Arch-M Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 391-407, March.
    14. Hsieh, David A., 1993. "Implications of Nonlinear Dynamics for Financial Risk Management," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(01), pages 41-64, March.
    15. A. Abhyankar & L. S. Copeland & W. Wong, 1995. "Moment condition failure in high frequency financial data: evidence from the S&P 500," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(8), pages 288-290.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Giacomini, Raffaella & Gottschling, Andreas & Haefke, Christian & White, Halbert, 2008. "Mixtures of t-distributions for finance and forecasting," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 144(1), pages 175-192, May.
    2. Isao Ishida & Toshiaki Watanabe, 2009. "Modeling and Forecasting the Volatility of the Nikkei 225 Realized Volatility Using the ARFIMA-GARCH Model," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-608, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    3. Ben Ameur, H. & Prigent, J.L., 2014. "Portfolio insurance: Gap risk under conditional multiples," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 236(1), pages 238-253.
    4. Evzen Kocenda & Lubos Briatka, 2004. "Advancing the iid Test Based on Integration across the Correlation Integral: Ranges, Competition, and Power," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp235, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    5. Beare, Brendan K. & Seo, Juwon, 2014. "Time Irreversible Copula-Based Markov Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(05), pages 923-960, October.
    6. Yi-Ting Chen, 2008. "A unified approach to standardized-residuals-based correlation tests for GARCH-type models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(1), pages 111-133.
    7. Kirt C. Butler & Katsushi Okada, 2008. "Higher-Order Terms in Bivariate Returns to International Stock Market Indices," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 12(1-2), pages 127-155, March-Jun.
    8. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2004:i:23:p:1-17 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Belaire-Franch, Jorge & Contreras, Dulce, 2003. "Tests for time reversibility: a complementarity analysis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 187-195, November.
    10. Evzen Kocenda & Lubos Briatka, 2005. "Optimal Range for the iid Test Based on Integration Across the Correlation Integral," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(3), pages 265-296.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:17:y:2002:i:5:p:565-578. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum). General contact details of provider: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/0883-7252/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.