IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bzn/wpaper/bemps119.html

Longevity Beliefs and Retirement Planning: Evidence from an Information Experiment and Expert Forecasts

Author

Listed:
  • Claudia Curi

    (Free University of Bozen-Bolzano, Italy)

  • Andreas Dibiasi

    (Free University of Bozen-Bolzano, Italy)

  • Francesco Nicolini

    (Free University of Bozen-Bolzano, Italy)

  • Matteo Ploner

    (University of Trento, Italy)

  • Mirco Tonin

    (Free University of Bozen-Bolzano, Italy & Research Institute for the Evaluation of Public Policies (IRVAPP), Bruno Kessler Foundation (FBK), Trento, Italy)

Abstract

Using original survey data from working-age individuals in Northern Italy, we study longevity beliefs and other key knowledge components relevant for retirement decisions. We find substantial dispersion in population longevity beliefs, with 40% of individuals misestimating life expectancy by more than five years, and highly fragmented knowledge across domains. Providing actuarial life expectancy information – tailored by age, gender, and country of residence – does not affect beliefs about individuals' own longevity or retirement plans, reflecting a disconnect between beliefs about one's own longevity and that of others. We compare our results with forecasts provided by 262 academic experts. On average, experts accurately anticipate the levels and correlations of longevity literacy with other knowledge components, but they mispredict a strong updating response of own longevity expectations to the provision of population information that deviates markedly from what we observe in the data.

Suggested Citation

  • Claudia Curi & Andreas Dibiasi & Francesco Nicolini & Matteo Ploner & Mirco Tonin, 2026. "Longevity Beliefs and Retirement Planning: Evidence from an Information Experiment and Expert Forecasts," BEMPS - Bozen Economics & Management Paper Series BEMPS119, Faculty of Economics and Management at the Free University of Bozen.
    • Handle: RePEc:bzn:wpaper:bemps119
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://repec.unibz.it/bemps119.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies
    • D15 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Intertemporal Household Choice; Life Cycle Models and Saving
    • G50 - Financial Economics - - Household Finance - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bzn:wpaper:bemps119. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: F. Marta L. Di Lascio or Alessandro Fedele (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/feubzit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.