Gaspreisdeckel, Strommarkt und Makroeffekte in Deutschland und der EU

Since late summer 2022, policymakers in Germany and many other European Union (EU) countries have increasingly discussed the option of imposing a gas price cap and introducing transfer payments to private households to help consumers in terms of gas, heat and electricity purchases. How a gas price cap should be designed - for all gas customers in the household and industrial sectors or targeted towards certain gas-consuming sectors - is not clear for the time being; in Germany, a special commission is to deliver proposals on this in October. Following a new EIIW analysis by Roeger and Welfens, it is shown below that a gas price cap only makes economic sense for the electricity market and the overall economy - supplemented by certain transfer measures. The DSGE model simulation results for Germany (or also the EU) are clear: Compared to a situation without government intervention or a pure transfer approach, real income and employment develop more favorably, while both inflation and the government deficit are lower in the medium term. It is also recommended that policy approaches be coordinated within the EU to avoid distortions in the EU's internal market and, finally, that demand and peak load management be stepped up in national electricity markets. This is because with reduced peak loads over the course of the day, there will be less need to rely on the flexible but price-driving gas-fired power generation than has been the case to date or which can be expected in the context of a falling gas price in the electricity market. If the share of gas in electricity generation decreases, this may contribute to a medium-term decline in the price of gas in Europe.