An Empirical Model of Sunk Costs and the Decision to Export
Exports respond unpredictably to a change in real exchange rates, suggests evidence from the 1980s. Recent theoretical work explains this as a consequence of the sunk costs associated with breaking into foreign markets. Sunk costs include the cost of packaging, upgrading product quality, establishing marketing channels, and accumulating information on demand sources. The authors use micro panel data to estimate a dynamic discrete-choice model of participation in export markets, a model derived from the Krugman-Baldwin sunk-cost hysteresis framework. Applying the model to data on manufacturing plants in Colombia (1981-89), they test for the presence of sunk entry costs and quantify the importance of those costs in explaining export patterns. The econometric results reject the hypothesis that sunk costs are zero. The results, which control for both observed and unobserved sources of plant heterogeneity, indicate that prior export market experience has a substantial effect on the probability of exporting, but its effect depreciates fairly quickly. The reentry costs of plants that have been out of the export market for a year are substantially lower than the costs of a first-time exporter. After a year out of the export market, however, the reentry costs are not significantly different from the entry costs. Plant characteristics are also associated with export behavior: large old plants owned by corporations are more likely to export than other plants. Variations in plant-level cost and demand conditions have much less effect on the profitability of exporting than variations in macroeconomic conditions and sunk costs do. It appears especially difficult to break into foreign markets during periods of world recession.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.
|Date of creation:||1993|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://econ.la.psu.edu/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Campa, Joe Manuel, 1993. "Entry by Foreign Firms in the United States under Exchange Rate Uncertainty," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(4), pages 614-22, November.
- Timothy F. BRESNAHAN & Peter C.REISS, 1994. "Measuring the Importance of Sunk Costs," Annales d'Economie et de Statistique, ENSAE, issue 34, pages 181-217.
- Richard Baldwin & Paul R. Krugman, 1986.
"Persistent Trade Effects of Large Exchage Rate Shocks,"
NBER Working Papers
2017, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Baldwin, Richard & Krugman, Paul, 1989. "Persistent Trade Effects of Large Exchange Rate Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 104(4), pages 635-54, November.
- Richard Baldwin, 1988.
"Hysteresis In Import Prices: The Beachhead Effect,"
NBER Working Papers
2545, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- James J. Heckman, 1981. "Heterogeneity and State Dependence," NBER Chapters, in: Studies in Labor Markets, pages 91-140 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Dunne, T. & Roberts, M.J. & Samuelson, L., 1988.
"The Growth And Failure Of U.S. Manufacturing Plants,"
1-87-5, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
- Dunne, Timothy & Roberts, Mark J & Samuelson, Larry, 1989. "The Growth and Failure of U.S. Manufacturing Plants," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 104(4), pages 671-98, November.
- Zvi Eckstein & Kenneth I. Wolpin, 1989. "The Specification and Estimation of Dynamic Stochastic Discrete Choice Models: A Survey," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 24(4), pages 562-598.
- Bresnahan, T.F & Reiss, P.C., 1989.
"Entry And Competition In Concentrated Markets,"
151, Stanford - Studies in Industry Economics.
- Feinberg, Robert M., 1992. "Hysteresis and export targeting," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 679-684, December.
- Evans, David S., 1986.
"Tests of Alternative Theories of Firm Growth,"
86-36, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Richard Baldwin, 1989. "Sunk-Cost Hysteresis," NBER Working Papers 2911, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Goldstein, Morris & Khan, Mohsin S., 1985. "Income and price effects in foreign trade," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 20, pages 1041-1105 Elsevier.
- Dixit, Avinash K, 1989. "Hysteresis, Import Penetration, and Exchange Rate Pass-Through," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 104(2), pages 205-28, May.
- Caves, Richard E., 1989. "International differences in industrial organization," Handbook of Industrial Organization, in: R. Schmalensee & R. Willig (ed.), Handbook of Industrial Organization, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 21, pages 1225-1250 Elsevier.
- Butler, J S & Moffitt, Robert, 1982. "A Computationally Efficient Quadrature Procedure for the One-Factor Multinomial Probit Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(3), pages 761-64, May.
- Andrews, Donald W. K., 1988. "Chi-square diagnostic tests for econometric models : Introduction and applications," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 135-156, January.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fth:pensta:4-93-3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Thomas Krichel)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.