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Testing For Financial Contagion Between Developed And Emerging Markets During The 1997 East Asian Crisis

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  • Philip Arestis
  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale

  • Andrea Cipollini
  • Nicola Spagnolo

Abstract

In this paper we examine whether during the 1997 East Asian crisis there was any contagion from the four largest economies in the region (Thailand, Indonesia, Korea and Malaysia) to a number of developed countries (Japan, UK, Germany and France).Following Forbes and Rigobon (2002), we test for contagion as a significant positive shift in the correlation between asset returns, taking into account heteroscedasticity and endogeneity bias. Furthermore, we improve on earlier empirical studies by carrying out a full sample test of the stability of the system that relies on more plausible (over)identifying restrictions. The estimation results provide some evidence of contagion, in particular from Japan (the major international lender in the region), which drastically cut its credit lines to the other Asian countries in 1997.

Suggested Citation

  • Philip Arestis & Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Andrea Cipollini & Nicola Spagnolo, 2005. "Testing For Financial Contagion Between Developed And Emerging Markets During The 1997 East Asian Crisis," Economics and Finance Discussion Papers 05-08, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
    • Handle: RePEc:bru:bruedp:05-08
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    2. Cristina Froes De Borja Reis & Carlos Aguiar De Medeiro, 2014. "From Export Specialization In Natural Resources To Diversification In Manufacturing: The Development Strategies Of Indonesia, Malaysia And Thailand Since 1980," Anais do XLI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 41st Brazilian Economics Meeting] 156, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    3. Nistor, Costel & Dumitriu, Ramona & Stefanescu, Razvan, 2012. "Impact of the global crisis on the linkages between CAC 40 and indexes from CEE countries," MPRA Paper 42511, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 18 Sep 2012.
    4. Oluwatosin Mary Aderajo & Oladotun Daniel Olaniran, 2021. "Analysis of financial contagion in influential African stock markets," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 1-9, December.
    5. Jose Arreola Hernandez & Mazin A.M. Al Janabi, 2020. "Forecasting of dependence, market, and investment risks of a global index portfolio," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(3), pages 512-532, April.
    6. Ballester, Laura & Díaz-Mendoza, Ana Carmen & González-Urteaga, Ana, 2019. "A systematic review of sovereign connectedness on emerging economies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 157-163.
    7. David Matesanz & Guillermo Ortega, 2014. "Network analysis of exchange data: interdependence drives crisis contagion," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 48(4), pages 1835-1851, July.

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