IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bou/wpaper/2013-02.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Why is it so Difficult and Complex to Solve the Euro Problem?

Author

Listed:
  • Burak Saltoðlu
  • Devrim Yýlmaz

Abstract

This paper discusses the complexities and challenges in finding a stable long-run solution for the Eurozone crisis. We first discuss the macroeconomic and structural differences among North and South European countries. Focusing on trade, labour productivity and balance of payments data, we show that periphery’s current account deficits are endemic and closely follow economic growth. Our analysis suggests that while German stagnant wage policy might have contributed to the building up of imbalances within the Eurozone to an extent, monetary policy by ECB, deficit-dependence of growth in Southern Europe and the cheap-credit environment of pre-crisis period also played major roles. In addition, we analyze the feasibility of policy proposals for saving the Eurozone, evaluating potential costs/benefits and reviewing the pros and cons of the newly established European Banking Union. We conclude that since the problems in Southern Europe are structural, an active industrialization policy in these countries and a partial fiscal union are essential for a sustainable long-run solution. Furthermore, the Banking Union as it is, is far too immature to have a quick impact on the problem. The costs of the necessary long-lasting reforms and regulations in the Eurozone can exceed short-run benefits. Therefore, a strong political will power with less attention to the short run benefits is necessary for a successful recovery.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Burak Saltoðlu & Devrim Yýlmaz, 2013. "Why is it so Difficult and Complex to Solve the Euro Problem?," Working Papers 2013/02, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:bou:wpaper:2013/02
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.econ.boun.edu.tr/public_html/RePEc/pdf/201302.pdf
    File Function: First version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hans-Werner Sinn, 2012. "The European Balance of Payments Crisis: An Introduction," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 13(SPECIALIS), pages 03-10, February.
    2. Özlem Onaran, 2010. "Fiscal Crisis in Europe or a Crisis of Distribution?," Working Papers wp226, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
    3. Olivier Blanchard, 2007. "Current Account Deficits in Rich Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 54(2), pages 191-219, June.
    4. Alenka Kavkler & Mejra Festić, 2010. "The Trade Deficit and Banking Sector Results in Romania and Bulgaria," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 12(27), pages 199-213, February.
    5. Cesar A. Hidalgo & Ricardo Hausmann, 2009. "The Building Blocks of Economic Complexity," Papers 0909.3890, arXiv.org.
    6. Alberto Bagnai, 2006. "Structural breaks and the twin deficits hypothesis," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 137-155, November.
    7. Holger Zemanek & Ansgar Belke & Gunther Schnabl, 2010. "Current account balances and structural adjustment in the euro area," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 83-127, May.
    8. Sergio Cesaratto & Antonella Stirati, 2010. "Germany and the European and Global Crises," International Journal of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(4), pages 56-86.
    9. Silvia Merler & Jean Pisani-Ferry, 2012. "Sudden Stops in the Euro Area," Review of Economics and Institutions, Università di Perugia, vol. 3(3).
    10. Alberto Bagnai, 2013. "Unhappy families are all alike: Minskyan cycles, Kaldorian growth, and the Eurozone peripheral crises," a/ Working Papers Series 1301, Italian Association for the Study of Economic Asymmetries, Rome (Italy).
    11. Sergio Cesaratto, 2012. "Controversial and novel features of the Eurozone crisis as a balance of payment crisis," Department of Economics University of Siena 640, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    12. Bénétrix, Agustín S. & Lane, Philip R., 2013. "Fiscal cyclicality and EMU," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 164-176.
    13. Abel L. Costa Fernandes & Paulo R. Mota, 2011. "The Roots of the Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis: PIGS vs Non-PIGS," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 58(5), pages 631-649, December.
    14. Salih N. Neftci, 1998. "FX Short Positions, Balance Sheets and Financial Turbulence: An Interpretation of the Asian Financial Crisis," SCEPA working paper series. 1998-18, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), The New School.
    15. Alberto Botta, 2012. "Conflicting Claims in the Eurozone? Austerity’s Myopic Logic and the Need for a European Federal Union in a post-Keynesian Eurozone Center-Periphery Model," DEM Working Papers Series 011, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
    16. Jesus Felipe & Utsav Kumar, 2014. "Unit labor costs in the eurozone: the competitiveness debate again," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 2(4), pages 490-507, October.
    17. Fernanda Nechio, 2011. "Monetary policy when one size does not fit all," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue june13.
    18. Roberto Frenkel & Martin Rapetti, 2009. "A developing country view of the current global crisis: what should not be forgotten and what should be done," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 33(4), pages 685-702, July.
    19. Borio, Claudio, 2014. "The financial cycle and macroeconomics: What have we learnt?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 182-198.
    20. Raphaël Chiappini, 2011. "Offshoring and export performance in the european automotive industry," Working Papers hal-00637603, HAL.
    21. N/A, 2011. "Balance of Payments," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 45(4), pages 73-104, January.
    22. Thomas Mayer & Jochen Möbert & Christian Weistroffer, 2012. "Macroeconomic Imbalances in EMU and the Eurosystem," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 13(SPECIALIS), pages 35-42, February.
    23. Diaz-Alejandro, Carlos, 1985. "Good-bye financial repression, hello financial crash," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 1-24.
    24. Hutchison, Michael M. & Noy, Ilan & Wang, Lidan, 2010. "Fiscal and monetary policies and the cost of sudden stops," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 973-987, October.
    25. Jörg Bibow, 2012. "The Euro and its Guardian of Stability: Fiction and Reality of the 10th Anniversary Blast," Chapters, in: Louis-Philippe Rochon & Salewa ‘Yinka Olawoye (ed.), Monetary Policy and Central Banking, chapter 10, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    26. Onaran, Özlem, 2009. "A crisis of distribution," Greenwich Papers in Political Economy 16224, University of Greenwich, Greenwich Political Economy Research Centre.
    27. Eatwell, John & Taylor, Lance (ed.), 2002. "International Capital Markets: Systems in Transition," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195154986.
    28. Thomas Mayer & Jochen Möbert & Christian Weistroffer, 2012. "Macroeconomic Imbalances in EMU and the Eurosystem," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 13(1), pages 35-42, February.
    29. Engelbert Stockhammer, 2011. "Peripheral Europe's debt and German wages: the role of wage policy in the Euro area," International Journal of Public Policy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 7(1/2/3), pages 83-96.
    30. Olivier Blanchard, 2007. "Current Account Deficits in Rich Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 54(2), pages 191-219, June.
    31. Felipe, Jesus & Kumar, Utsav & Abdon, Arnelyn & Bacate, Marife, 2012. "Product complexity and economic development," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 36-68.
    32. Olivier Blanchard & Francesco Giavazzi, 2002. "Current Account Deficits in the Euro Area: The End of the Feldstein Horioka Puzzle?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 33(2), pages 147-210.
    33. Philip R. Lane, 2012. "The European Sovereign Debt Crisis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 49-68, Summer.
    34. Thomas I. Palley, 2011. "Monetary Union Stability: The Need for a Government Banker and the Case for a European Public Finance Authority," IMK Working Paper 2-2011, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Walter Paternesi Meloni, 2017. "Austerity & Competitiveness in the Eurozone: a misleading linkage," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' 0223, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.
    2. Sergio Cesaratto, 2012. "Controversial and novel features of the Eurozone crisis as a balance of payment crisis," Department of Economics University of Siena 640, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    3. Paternesi Meloni, Walter, 2016. "Austerity and competitiveness in the Eurozone: a misleading linkage," MPRA Paper 75962, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Philip R. Lane, 2013. "Growth And Adjustment Challenges For The Euro Area," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 44(2), pages 273-295.
    5. Walter Paternesi Meloni, 2018. "Italy’s Price Competitiveness: An Empirical Assessment Through Export Elasticities," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 4(3), pages 421-462, November.
    6. Benedetta Bianchi, 2016. "Sovereign Risk Premia and the International Balance Sheet: Lessons from the European Crisis," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 471-493, July.
    7. Sergio Cesaratto, 2014. "Balance of payments or monetary sovereignty? In search of the EMU’s original sin – a reply to Lavoie," a/ Working Papers Series 1406, Italian Association for the Study of Economic Asymmetries, Rome (Italy).
    8. Alberto Bagnai, 2013. "Unhappy families are all alike: Minskyan cycles, Kaldorian growth, and the Eurozone peripheral crises," a/ Working Papers Series 1301, Italian Association for the Study of Economic Asymmetries, Rome (Italy).
    9. Sergio Cesaratto, 2017. "Alternative interpretations of a stateless currency crisis," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 41(4), pages 977-998.
    10. Kapeller, Jakob & Gräbner, Claudius & Heimberger, Philipp, 2019. "Economic polarisation in Europe: Causes and policy options," ifso working paper series 5, University of Duisburg-Essen, Institute for Socioeconomics (ifso).
    11. Philip Lane, 2013. "Financial Globalisation and the Crisis," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 555-580, July.
    12. Claudius Gräbner & Philipp Heimberger & Jakob Kapeller & Bernhard Schütz, 2017. "Is Europe Disintegrating? Macroeconomic Divergence, Structural Polarisation, Trade and Fragility," wiiw Working Papers 136, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    13. Enno Schröder, 2015. "Eurozone Imbalances: Measuring the Contribution of Expenditure Switching and Expenditure Volumes 1990-2013," Working Papers 1508, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2015.
    14. Roberto Tamborini, 2018. "Macroeconomic Imbalances and the Euro Zone. Alternative Views," EconPol Working Paper 14, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    15. Sergio Cesaratto, 2013. "The implications of TARGET2 in the European balance of payments crisis and beyond," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 10(3), pages 359-382.
    16. Giuseppe Mastromatteo & Sergio Rossi, 2015. "The economics of deflation in the euro area: a critique of fiscal austerity," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 3(3), pages 336-350, July.
    17. Philip R. Lane, 2012. "The European Sovereign Debt Crisis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 49-68, Summer.
    18. D. Siena, 2014. "The European Monetary Union and Imbalances: Is it an Anticipation Story ?," Working papers 501, Banque de France.
    19. Ronny Mazzocchi & Roberto Tamborini, 2019. "Current Account Imbalances and the Euro Area: Alternative Views," EconPol Working Paper 27, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    20. Angelini, E. & Dieppe, A. & Pierluigi, B., 2015. "Modelling internal devaluation experiences in Europe: Rational or learning agents?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 81-92.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bou:wpaper:2013/02. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Lutfu Gozgucu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deboutr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.