IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/boj/bojwps/wp16e04.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Household Portfolios in a Secular Stagnation World: Evidence from Japan

Author

Listed:
  • Kosuke Aoki

    (University of Tokyo)

  • Alexander Michaelides

    (Imperial College Business School, CEPR, CFS and NETSPAR)

  • Kalin Nikolov

    (European Central Bank)

Abstract

We document low stock market participation rates and high proportions of money in Japanese household portfolios. To replicate these facts, we introduce a money demand motive in a life-cycle portfolio choice model and calibrate the model's structural parameters to match Japanese household financial data. Using counterfactual analysis we find that low expected stock returns, low expected inflation and high fixed costs of stock market participation are the main determinants of Japanese household portfolios.

Suggested Citation

  • Kosuke Aoki & Alexander Michaelides & Kalin Nikolov, 2016. "Household Portfolios in a Secular Stagnation World: Evidence from Japan," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 16-E-4, Bank of Japan.
  • Handle: RePEc:boj:bojwps:wp16e04
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.boj.or.jp/en/research/wps_rev/wps_2016/data/wp16e04.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christopher D. Carroll, 1997. "Buffer-Stock Saving and the Life Cycle/Permanent Income Hypothesis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 112(1), pages 1-55.
    2. Favilukis, Jack, 2013. "Inequality, stock market participation, and the equity premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(3), pages 740-759.
    3. Campanale, Claudio & Fugazza, Carolina & Gomes, Francisco, 2015. "Life-cycle portfolio choice with liquid and illiquid financial assets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 67-83.
    4. Claudio Campanale & Carolina Fugazza & Francisco Gomes, 2012. "Life-Cycle Portfolio Choice with Liquid and Illiquid Financial Assets," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 269, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
    5. Luigi Guiso & Paola Sapienza & Luigi Zingales, 2008. "Trusting the Stock Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(6), pages 2557-2600, December.
    6. Sule Alan, 2006. "Entry Costs and Stock Market Participation over the Life Cycle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 9(4), pages 588-611, October.
    7. Naohito Abe & Noriko Inakura & Tomoaki Yamada, 2007. "Consumption, Working Hours, and Wealth Determination in a Life Cycle Model," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 07-E-14, Bank of Japan.
    8. Lucas, Robert E, Jr & Stokey, Nancy L, 1987. "Money and Interest in a Cash-in-Advance Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 491-513, May.
    9. Attanasio, Orazio P, et al, 1999. "Humps and Bumps in Lifetime Consumption," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(1), pages 22-35, January.
    10. Lippi, Francesco & Secchi, Alessandro, 2009. "Technological change and the households' demand for currency," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 222-230, March.
    11. Epstein, Larry G & Zin, Stanley E, 1989. "Substitution, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Consumption and Asset Returns: A Theoretical Framework," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 937-969, July.
    12. Deaton, Angus, 1991. "Saving and Liquidity Constraints," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(5), pages 1221-1248, September.
    13. Valery Polkovnichenko, 2007. "Life-Cycle Portfolio Choice with Additive Habit Formation Preferences and Uninsurable Labor Income Risk," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(1), pages 83-124, January.
    14. Fernando Alvarez & Francesco Lippi, 2009. "Financial Innovation and the Transactions Demand for Cash," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(2), pages 363-402, March.
    15. David A. Love, 2010. "The Effects of Marital Status and Children on Savings and Portfolio Choice," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(1), pages 385-432, January.
    16. Hiroshi Fujiki & Naohisa Hirakata & Etsuro Shioji, 2012. "Aging and Household Stockholdings: Evidence from Japanese Household Survey Data," IMES Discussion Paper Series 12-E-17, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    17. Russell Cooper & Guozhong Zhu, 2013. "Household Finance: Education, Permanent Income and Portfolio Choice," NBER Working Papers 19455, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Lars Ljungqvist & Thomas J. Sargent, 2004. "Recursive Macroeconomic Theory, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 026212274x, March.
    19. Joao F. Cocco, 2005. "Consumption and Portfolio Choice over the Life Cycle," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(2), pages 491-533.
    20. John Y. Campbell, 2006. "Household Finance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1553-1604, August.
    21. Francisco Gomes & Alexander Michaelides, 2005. "Optimal Life‚ÄźCycle Asset Allocation: Understanding the Empirical Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(2), pages 869-904, April.
    22. William J. Baumol, 1952. "The Transactions Demand for Cash: An Inventory Theoretic Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 66(4), pages 545-556.
    23. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Wright, Randall, 1989. "On Money as a Medium of Exchange," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(4), pages 927-954, August.
    24. Norihiro KASUGA & Katsumi Matsuura, 2005. "Liquidity Constraint and Household Portfolio in Japan," Others 0505010, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    25. Cagetti, Marco, 2003. "Wealth Accumulation over the Life Cycle and Precautionary Savings," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(3), pages 339-353, July.
    26. Mark Aguiar & Erik Hurst, 2005. "Consumption versus Expenditure," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(5), pages 919-948, October.
    27. Lawrence H Summers, 2014. "U.S. Economic Prospects: Secular Stagnation, Hysteresis, and the Zero Lower Bound," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 49(2), pages 65-73, April.
    28. Haliassos, Michael & Bertaut, Carol C, 1995. "Why Do So Few Hold Stocks?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(432), pages 1110-1129, September.
    29. Hiroshi Fujiki & Etsuro Shioji, 2006. "Bank Health Concerns, Low Interest Rates, and Money Demand: Evidence from the Public Opinion Survey on Household Financial Assets and Liabilities," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 24(2), pages 73-124, November.
    30. Campanale, Claudio & Fugazza, Carolina & Gomes, Francisco J, 2015. "Life-Cycle Portfolio choice with Liquid and Illiquid Assets," CEPR Discussion Papers 10369, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    31. repec:hit:ecorev:v:66:y:2015:i:3:p:242-264 is not listed on IDEAS
    32. Abe, Naohito & Yamada, Tomoaki, 2009. "Nonlinear income variance profiles and consumption inequality over the life cycle," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 344-366, September.
    33. Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2002. "Limited Asset Market Participation and the Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution," NBER Working Papers 8896, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    34. Jessica A. Wachter & Motohiro Yogo, 2010. "Why Do Household Portfolio Shares Rise in Wealth?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(11), pages 3929-3965, November.
    35. Yukinobu Kitamura & Taisuke Uchino, 2010. "The Effect of Academic Background on Household Portfolio Selection: Evidence from Japanese Repeated Cross Section Data," Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series gd10-149, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    36. Casey B. Mulligan & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 2000. "Extensive Margins and the Demand for Money at Low Interest Rates," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(5), pages 961-991, October.
    37. Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2002. "Limited Asset Market Participation and the Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(4), pages 825-853, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mitsuru Katagiri & Koji Takahashi, 2017. "Do Term Premiums Matter? Transmission via Exchange Rate Dynamics," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 17-E-7, Bank of Japan.
    2. repec:eee:ejores:v:274:y:2019:i:1:p:357-374 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Yuichiro Ito & Yasutaka Takizuka & Shigeaki Fujiwara, 2017. "Portfolio Selection by Households: An Empirical Analysis Using Dynamic Panel Data Models," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 17-E-6, Bank of Japan.
    4. Shuhei Aoki & Makoto Nirei & Kazufumi Yamana, 2018. "Risk-Taking, Inequality and Output in the Long-Run," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 18-E-4, Bank of Japan.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Life Cycle Models; Portfolio Choice; Inflation; Money Demand; Stock Market Participation; Uninsurable Labor Income Risk; Japanese portfolios;

    JEL classification:

    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:boj:bojwps:wp16e04. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Bank of Japan). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/bojgvjp.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.