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Do Disaster Expectations Explain Household Portfolios?

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  • Sule Alan

    (Koc University CASE)

Abstract

It has been argued that rare economic disasters can explain most asset pricing puzzles. If this is the case, perceived risk associated with a disaster in stock markets should be revealed in household portfolios. That is, the framework that solves these pricing puzzles should also generate quantities that are consistent with the observed ones. This paper estimates the perceived risk of disasters (both probability and expected size) that is consistent with observed portfolios and consumption growth between 1983 and 2004 in the United States. I find that the portfolio choice of households that have less than a college degree can be partially explained by expectations of stock markets disasters only if one allows for a large probability of labor income loss at the same time. Such disaster expectations however, are not revealed in the portfolios of educated and wealthier households; simple per-period participation costs to stock market coupled with preference heterogeneity explain their participation and investment patterns.

Suggested Citation

  • Sule Alan, 2011. "Do Disaster Expectations Explain Household Portfolios?," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1127, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
  • Handle: RePEc:koc:wpaper:1127
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    2. Khorunzhina, Natalia, 2013. "Structural estimation of stock market participation costs," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2928-2942.
    3. Manuel Arellano & Richard Blundell & Stéphane Bonhomme, 2017. "Earnings and Consumption Dynamics: A Nonlinear Panel Data Framework," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 85, pages 693-734, May.
    4. Sule Alan & Thomas Crossley & Hamish Low, 2012. "Saving on a Rainy Day, Borrowing for a Rainy Day," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1212, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    5. Irina Khvostova Author-Email: ikhvostova@hse.ru & Anna Novak Author-Email: aenovak@hse.ru, 2016. "The Euler Equation with Habits and Measurement Errors: Estimates on Russian Micro Data," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 63(4), pages 395-409, September.
    6. Magnus Dahlquist & Ofer Setty & Roine Vestman, 2018. "On the Asset Allocation of a Default Pension Fund," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 73(4), pages 1893-1936, August.
    7. Kim, Chi Hyun, 2021. "Optimism gone bad? The persistent effects of traumatic experiences on investment decisions," Working Papers 32, German Research Foundation's Priority Programme 1859 "Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour", Humboldt University Berlin.
    8. Chi Hyun Kim, 2021. "Optimism Gone Bad? The Persistent Effects of Traumatic Experiences on Investment Decisions," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1952, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    9. Manuel Arellano & Richard Blundell & Stéphane Bonhomme, 2017. "Earnings and Consumption Dynamics: A Nonlinear Panel Data Framework," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 85, pages 693-734, May.
    10. Larin, Alexander & Novak, Anna & Khvostova, Irina, 2013. "Consumption dynamics in Russia: Estimates on microdata," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 32(4), pages 29-44.
    11. Ampudia, Miguel & Ehrmann, Michael, 2017. "Macroeconomic experiences and risk taking of euro area households," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 146-156.
    12. Le Blanc, Julia & Scholl, Almuth, 2017. "Optimal Savings For Retirement: The Role Of Individual Accounts," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(6), pages 1361-1388, September.
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    14. Agnese Carella & Valentina Michelangeli, 2021. "Information or persuasion in the mortgage market: the role of brand names," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1340, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

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