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Financial Stability Paper No 23: The Fractal Market Hypothesis and its implications for the stability of financial markets

Author

Listed:
  • Anderson, Nicola

    (Bank of England)

  • Noss, Joseph

    (Bank of England)

Abstract

Time series of financial market prices appear to exhibit fractal properties: that is, under magnification, their pattern becomes increasingly complex, and seems to repeat itself, with a pattern that is qualitatively similar to that of the overall structure. This paper examines why and how these fractal properties might arise, and considers their implications for understanding the causes of financial (in)stability. It offers a quantitative model of investor behaviour and price formation that seeks to account for fractal properties of market prices. It conjectures that the dynamic of market prices — in particular its self-similarity — might be caused by the interactions of agents with different investment horizons and differing interpretations of information. This structure appears to be associated with a special sort of stability that can be disrupted, causing prices to crash, if the normal interaction of these agents breaks down.

Suggested Citation

  • Anderson, Nicola & Noss, Joseph, 2013. "Financial Stability Paper No 23: The Fractal Market Hypothesis and its implications for the stability of financial markets," Bank of England Financial Stability Papers 23, Bank of England.
    • Handle: RePEc:boe:finsta:0023
    Note: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/financialstability/Pages/fpc/fspapers/fs_paper23.aspx
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Lodewikus Jacobus Basson & Gary van Vuuren, 2020. "Exploring Hedging Strategies Identified by Fractal Dimensions," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business (continues Analele Stiintifice), Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 67(1), pages 1-13, March.
    2. Anderson, Nicola & Webber, Lewis & Noss, Joseph & Beale, Daniel & Crowley-Reidy, Liam, 2015. "Financial Stability Paper 34: The resilience of financial market liquidity," Bank of England Financial Stability Papers 34, Bank of England.
    3. Cristiana Vaz & Rui Pascoal & Helder Sebastião, 2021. "Price Appreciation and Roughness Duality in Bitcoin: A Multifractal Analysis," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(17), pages 1-18, August.
    4. Ritika Chopra & Gagan Deep Sharma, 2021. "Application of Artificial Intelligence in Stock Market Forecasting: A Critique, Review, and Research Agenda," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-34, November.
    5. Adam Karp & Gary Van Vuuren, 2019. "Investment Implications Of The Fractal Market Hypothesis," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 14(01), pages 1-27, March.
    6. Sergio Bianchi & Augusto Pianese & Massimiliano Frezza, 2020. "A distribution‐based method to gauge market liquidity through scale invariance between investment horizons," Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(5), pages 809-824, September.
    7. Daniela Alexandra CRIȘAN, 2015. "Financial Volatility Measurement Using Fractal Dimension," Romanian Economic Business Review, Romanian-American University, vol. 9(1), pages 95-102, May.
    8. Svetlozar T. Rachev & Stoyan V. Stoyanov & Frank J. Fabozzi, 2017. "Financial Markets With No Riskless (Safe) Asset," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 20(08), pages 1-24, December.
    9. Flavia BARNA & Ştefana Maria DIMA & Bogdan DIMA & Lucian PAŞCA, 2016. "Fractal Market Hypothesis: The Emergent Financial Markets Case," ECONOMIC COMPUTATION AND ECONOMIC CYBERNETICS STUDIES AND RESEARCH, Faculty of Economic Cybernetics, Statistics and Informatics, vol. 50(2), pages 137-150.
    10. Uritskaya, Olga Y. & Uritsky, Vadim M., 2015. "Predictability of price movements in deregulated electricity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 72-81.
    11. DIMA, Bogdan & DIMA, Ştefana Maria & IOAN, Roxana, 2021. "Remarks on the behaviour of financial market efficiency during the COVID-19 pandemic. The case of VIX," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    12. Karvik, Geir-Are & Noss, Joseph & Worlidge, Jack & Beale, Daniel, 2018. "The deeds of speed: an agent-based model of market liquidity and flash episodes," Bank of England working papers 743, Bank of England.
    13. L.J. Basson & Sune Ferreira-Schenk & Zandri Dickason-Koekemoer, 2022. "Fractal Dimension Option Hedging Strategy Implementation During Turbulent Market Conditions in Developing and Developed Countries," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 12(2), pages 84-95, March.
    14. Abraham Oketooyin GBADEBO & Yusuf Olatunji OYEDEKO, 2022. "Effect Of Liquidity Risk On Low Volatility Anomaly In Nigerian Stock Market," Contemporary Economy Journal, Constantin Brancoveanu University, vol. 7(3), pages 25-42.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    financial regulation; fractal market hypothesis;

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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