Credit at times of stress: Latin American lessons from the global financial crisis
The financial systems in emerging market economies (EMEs) during the 2008-09 global financial crisis performed much better than in previous crisis episodes, albeit with significant differences across regions. For example, real credit growth in Asia and Latin America was less affected than in Central and Eastern Europe. This paper identifies the factors at both the country and the bank levels that contributed to the behaviour of real credit growth in Latin America during the global financial crisis. The resilience of real credit during the crisis was highly related to policies, measures and reforms implemented in the pre-crisis period. In particular, we find that the best explanatory variables were those that gauged the economy's capacity to withstand an external financial shock. Key were balance sheet measures such as the economy's overall currency mismatches and external debt ratios (measuring either total debt or short-term debt). The quality of pre-crisis credit growth mattered as much as its rate of expansion. Credit expansions that preserved healthy balance sheet measures (the "quality" dimension) proved to be more sustainable. Variables signalling the capacity to set countercyclical monetary and fiscal policies during the crisis were also important determinants. Moreover, financial soundness characteristics of Latin American banks, such as capitalisation, liquidity and bank efficiency, also played a role in explaining the dynamics of real credit during the crisis. We also found that foreign banks and banks which had expanded credit growth more before the crisis were also those that cut credit most. The methodology used in this paper includes the construction of indicators of resilience of real credit growth to adverse external shocks in a large number of emerging markets, not just in Latin America. As additional data become available, these indicators could be part of a set of analytical tools to assess how emerging market economies are preparing themselves to cope with the adverse effects of global financial turbulence on real credit growth.
|Date of creation:||Feb 2012|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Centralbahnplatz 2, CH - 4002 Basel|
Phone: (41) 61 - 280 80 80
Fax: (41) 61 - 280 91 00
Web page: http://www.bis.org/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Liliana Rojas-Suarez, 2010. "The International Financial Crisis: Eight Lessons for and from Latin America," Working Papers 202, Center for Global Development.
- Francisco F. Vazquez & Carmen Reinhart & Marco Arena, 2007.
"The Lending Channel in Emerging Economies; Are Foreign Banks Different?,"
IMF Working Papers
07/48, International Monetary Fund.
- Marco Arena & Carmen Reinhart & Francisco Vázquez, 2006. "The Lending Channel in Emerging Economics: Are Foreign Banks Different?," NBER Working Papers 12340, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Rose, Andrew K. & Spiegel, Mark M., 2011.
"Cross-country causes and consequences of the crisis: An update,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 309-324, April.
- Andrew K. Rose & Mark M. Spiegel, 2011. "Cross-country causes and consequences of the crisis: an update," Working Paper Series 2011-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Rose, Andrew K & Spiegel, Mark, 2010. "Cross-Country Causes and Consequences of the Crisis: An Update," CEPR Discussion Papers 7901, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Andrew K. Rose & Mark M. Spiegel, 2010. "Cross-Country Causes and Consequences of the Crisis: An Update," NBER Working Papers 16243, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 2000. "When Capital Inflows Come to a Sudden Stop: Consequences and Policy Options," MPRA Paper 6982, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Marc Klau & John Hawkins, 2000. "Measuring potential vulnerabilities in emerging market economies," BIS Working Papers 91, Bank for International Settlements.
- Barth,James R. & Caprio,Gerard & Levine,Ross, 2006.
"Rethinking Bank Regulation,"
Cambridge University Press, number 9780521855761, November.
- Stephen Cecchetti & Michael R King & James Yetman, 2011. "Weathering the financial crisis: good policy or good luck?," BIS Working Papers 351, Bank for International Settlements.
- Sebastian Edwards, 2004. "Thirty Years of Current Account Imbalances, Current Account Reversals and Sudden Stops," NBER Working Papers 10276, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ari Aisen & Michael Franken, 2009. "Bank Credit and the 2008 Financial Crisis: A cross-country Comparison," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 532, Central Bank of Chile.
- Ralph Chami & Raphael A. Espinoza & Adolfo Barajas & Heiko Hesse, 2010. "Recent Credit Stagnation in the Mena Region; What to Expect? What Can Be Done?," IMF Working Papers 10/219, International Monetary Fund.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:370. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christian Beslmeisl)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.