IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bge/wpaper/1569.html

The Geoeconomics of Contract Enforcement

Author

Listed:
  • Gerhard Toews
  • Elena Paltseva
  • Marta Troya-Martínez

Abstract

Historically, contract enforcement between multinationals and host governments relied on military power. In the late 1960s, Western Great Powers (WGP) – U.S., U.K., France – sharply reduced military interventions, increasing expropriation risk in weak-institution countries. We study the effect of this unanticipated global shift using microdata from the petroleum industry. Firms headquartered in WGP responded by delaying ("backloading") production by 2-4 years, converging to the delays already exhibited by other multinationals. Backloading resulted in annual revenue losses of one quarter billion US$ per country, largely offset by higher government rent-shares. These patterns are consistent with the formation of self-enforcing agreements.

Suggested Citation

  • Gerhard Toews & Elena Paltseva & Marta Troya-Martínez, 2026. "The Geoeconomics of Contract Enforcement," Working Papers 1569, Barcelona School of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:bge:wpaper:1569
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://bw.bse.eu/wp-content/uploads/1569.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Easterly, William & Rebelo, Sergio, 1993. "Fiscal policy and economic growth: An empirical investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 417-458, December.
    2. Michael S Minor, 1994. "The Demise of Expropriation as an Instrument of LDC Policy 1980-1992," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 25(1), pages 177-188, March.
    3. Sergei Guriev & Anton Kolotilin & Konstantin Sonin, 2011. "Determinants of Nationalization in the Oil Sector: A Theory and Evidence from Panel Data," The Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, Oxford University Press, vol. 27(2), pages 301-323.
    4. Marta Troya-Martinez & Liam Wren-Lewis, 2023. "Managing Relational Contracts," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 21(3), pages 941-986.
    5. Keohane, Robert O. & Ooms, Van Doorn, 1972. "The Multinational Enterprise and World Political Economy," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(1), pages 84-120, January.
    6. Rocco Macchiavello & Ameet Morjaria, 2015. "The Value of Relationships: Evidence from a Supply Shock to Kenyan Rose Exports," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(9), pages 2911-2945, September.
    7. John Asker & Allan Collard-Wexler & Jan De Loecker, 2019. "(Mis)Allocation, Market Power, and Global Oil Extraction," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(4), pages 1568-1615, April.
    8. Soren T. Anderson & Ryan Kellogg & Stephen W. Salant, 2018. "Hotelling under Pressure," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(3), pages 984-1026.
    9. Martin Brown & Armin Falk & Ernst Fehr, 2004. "Relational Contracts and the Nature of Market Interactions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(3), pages 747-780, May.
    10. Ronald Findlay & Kevin H. O'Rourke, 2007. "Introduction to Power and Plenty: Trade, War, and the World Economy in the Second Millennium," Introductory Chapters, in: Power and Plenty: Trade, War, and the World Economy in the Second Millennium, Princeton University Press.
    11. Takako Fujiwara-Greve & Masahiro Okuno-Fujiwara, 2009. "Voluntarily Separable Repeated Prisoner's Dilemma," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 76(3), pages 993-1021.
    12. Daniel Berger & William Easterly & Nathan Nunn & Shanker Satyanath, 2013. "Commercial Imperialism? Political Influence and Trade during the Cold War," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(2), pages 863-896, April.
    13. Jonathan Thomas & Tim Worrall, 1994. "Foreign Direct Investment and the Risk of Expropriation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 61(1), pages 81-108.
    14. J. Bradford De Long & Lawrence H. Summers, 1991. "Equipment Investment and Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(2), pages 445-502.
    15. Hamang, Jonas, 2024. "Economic development and known natural resource endowment: Discovery rate differentials of oil," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    16. Joshua D. Angrist & Jörn-Steffen Pischke, 2014. "Mastering ’Metrics: The Path from Cause to Effect," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 10363, December.
    17. Harold Hotelling, 1931. "The Economics of Exhaustible Resources," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(2), pages 137-137.
    18. Parikshit Ghosh & Debraj Ray, 1996. "Cooperation in Community Interaction Without Information Flows," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 63(3), pages 491-519.
    19. Ronald Findlay & Kevin H. O'Rourke, 2007. "Preface to Power and Plenty: Trade, War, and the World Economy in the Second Millennium," Introductory Chapters, in: Power and Plenty: Trade, War, and the World Economy in the Second Millennium, Princeton University Press.
    20. Fong, Yuk-fai & Li, Jin, 2017. "Relational contracts, limited liability, and employment dynamics," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 270-293.
    21. Christopher Hajzler, 2012. "Expropriation of foreign direct investments: sectoral patterns from 1993 to 2006," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 148(1), pages 119-149, April.
    22. Johannes Stroebel & Arthur van Benthem, 2013. "Resource Extraction Contracts Under Threat of Expropriation: Theory and Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1622-1639, December.
    23. Robert T. Deacon & Henning Bohn, 2000. "Ownership Risk, Investment, and the Use of Natural Resources," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 526-549, June.
    24. Kranton, Rachel E, 1996. "The Formation of Cooperative Relationships," The Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, Oxford University Press, vol. 12(1), pages 214-233, April.
    25. Watson, Joel, 1999. "Starting Small and Renegotiation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 85(1), pages 52-90, March.
    26. Debraj Ray, 2002. "The Time Structure of Self-Enforcing Agreements," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(2), pages 547-582, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Paltseva, Elena & Toews , Gerhard & Troya-Martinez, Marta, 2022. "I’ll pay you later: Sustaining Relationships under the Threat of Expropriation," SITE Working Paper Series 59, Stockholm School of Economics, Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics.
    2. Jaakkola, Niko & Spiro, Daniel & van Benthem, Arthur A., 2019. "Finders, keepers?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 17-33.
    3. Brown, M. & Serra Garcia, M., 2010. "Relational Contracting Under the Threat of Expropriation – Experimental Evidence," Discussion Paper 2010-85, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    4. Fischer, Christian, 2020. "Optimal payment contracts in trade relationships," DICE Discussion Papers 332, Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE).
    5. Wei, Dong, 2019. "A model of trust building with anonymous re-matching," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 311-327.
    6. Ramin Dadasov & Carsten Hefeker & Oliver Lorz, 2014. "Natural Resource Production, Corruption, and Expropriation," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201436, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    7. Brown, Martin & Serra-Garcia, Marta, 2011. "The Threat of Exclusion and Relational Contracting," Discussion Papers in Economics 12287, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    8. Ramin Dadasov & Carsten Hefeker & Oliver Lorz, 2017. "Natural resource extraction, corruption, and expropriation," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 153(4), pages 809-832, November.
    9. Kashcheeva, Mila & Tsui, Kevin K., 2015. "Political oil import diversification by financial and commercial traders," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 289-297.
    10. Martin Brown & Marta Serra-Garcia, 2017. "The Threat of Exclusion and Implicit Contracting," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(12), pages 4081-4100, December.
    11. Sergey Mityakov & Heiwai Tang & Kevin K. Tsui, 2013. "International Politics and Import Diversification," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56(4), pages 1091-1121.
    12. Mohammad Kemal & Ian Lange, 2016. "Changes in Institutional Design, Expropriation Risk and Extraction Path," Working Papers 2016-06, Colorado School of Mines, Division of Economics and Business.
    13. Kartal, Melis & Müller, Wieland & Tremewan, James, 2021. "Building trust: The costs and benefits of gradualism," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 258-275.
    14. James M. Malcomson, 2012. "Relational Incentive Contracts [The Handbook of Organizational Economics]," Introductory Chapters,, Princeton University Press.
    15. Joel Watson, 2021. "Theoretical Foundations of Relational Incentive Contracts," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 13(1), pages 631-659, August.
    16. Sperisen, Benjamin & Wiseman, Thomas, 2020. "Too good to fire: Non-assortative matching to play a dynamic game," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 491-511.
    17. Akhtaruzzaman, M. & Berg, Nathan & Hajzler, Christopher, 2017. "Expropriation risk and FDI in developing countries: Does return of capital dominate return on capital?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 84-107.
    18. Hortacsu, Ali, 2005. "Trust and Reputation on eBay: Micro and Macro Perspectives," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt8vj7d50q, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    19. Restrepo-Ochoa, Diana Constanza & Peña, Juan Ignacio, 2020. "The impact of forced divestments on parent company stock prices: Buy on the rumor, sell on the news?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    20. Christian Fischer‐Thöne, 2023. "Optimal Payment Contracts In Trade Relationships," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 64(4), pages 1649-1683, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • D86 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Economics of Contract Law
    • L14 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Transactional Relationships; Contracts and Reputation
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General
    • P48 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - Legal Institutions; Property Rights; Natural Resources; Energy; Environment; Regional Studies

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bge:wpaper:1569. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Bruno Guallar (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bargses.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.