IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bfr/banfra/672.html

Dissecting the Impact of Imports from Low-Wage Countries on French Consumer Prices

Author

Listed:
  • Juan Carluccio
  • Erwan Gautier
  • Sophie Guilloux-Nefussi

Abstract

We provide a quantitative assessment of the impact of imports from low-wage countries (LWCs) on CPI inflation in France during 1994-2014, using detailed micro data on imports and exports. The share of imports from low-wage countries in consumption increased from about 2% to 7%, and resulted in a negative impact on CPI inflation of about 0.17 pp per year on average. This effect decomposes in three channels. 1) The substitution channel, capturing the replacement of domestic production by goods from LWCs, accounts for almost -0.05 pp. 2) The rise in the proportion of LWC goods in total imports weighed down on imported inflation. This channel reduced French CPI inflation by 0.06 pp per year. 3) Instrumental variable estimation of the competition channel at the product level shows that the increase in the market share of LWCs in French expenditures led to a negative effect of 0.06 pp on CPI inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Carluccio & Erwan Gautier & Sophie Guilloux-Nefussi, 2018. "Dissecting the Impact of Imports from Low-Wage Countries on French Consumer Prices," Working papers 672, Banque de France.
    • Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:672
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://publications.banque-france.fr/sites/default/files/medias/documents/wp672.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Matteo Bugamelli & Silvia Fabiani & Enrico Sette, 2015. "The Age of the Dragon: The Effect of Imports from China on Firm‐Level Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(6), pages 1091-1118, September.
    2. Guannan Miao & Fabienne Fortanier, 2017. "Estimating Transport and Insurance Costs of International Trade," OECD Statistics Working Papers 2017/4, OECD Publishing.
    3. Chen, Natalie & Imbs, Jean & Scott, Andrew, 2009. "The dynamics of trade and competition," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 50-62, February.
    4. David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson, 2013. "The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2121-2168, October.
    5. Charlotte Emlinger & Lionel Fontagné, 2013. "(Not) Made in France," La Lettre du CEPII, CEPII research center, issue 333.
    6. Ernst Glatzer & Ernest Gnan & Maria Teresa Valderrama, 2006. "Globalization, Import Prices and Producer Prices in Austria," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 3, pages 24-43.
    7. Auer, Raphael & Fischer, Andreas M., 2010. "The effect of low-wage import competition on U.S. inflationary pressure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(4), pages 491-503, May.
    8. Nigel Pain & Isabell Koske & Marte Sollie, 2008. "Globalisation and OECD consumer price inflation," OECD Journal: Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2008(1), pages 1-32.
    9. Steven B. Kamin & Mario Marazzi & John W. Schindler, 2006. "The Impact of Chinese Exports on Global Import Prices," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(2), pages 179-201, May.
    10. Fátima Cardoso & Paulo Esteves, 2008. "The effects of low-cost countries on Portuguese manufacturing import prices," Working Papers w200804, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    11. Bernard, Andrew B. & Jensen, J. Bradford & Schott, Peter K., 2006. "Survival of the best fit: Exposure to low-wage countries and the (uneven) growth of U.S. manufacturing plants," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 219-237, January.
    12. Breinlich, Holger & Dhingra, Swati & Berlingieri, Giuseppe, 2016. "The Impact of Trade Agreements on Consumer Welfare," CEPR Discussion Papers 11148, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Amiti, Mary & Dai, Mi & Feenstra, Robert & Romalis, John, 2017. "How Did China's WTO Entry Benefit U.S. Consumers?," CEPR Discussion Papers 12076, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Giordano, Claire & Lopez-Garcia, Paloma, 2019. "Firm heterogeneity and trade in EU countries: a cross-country analysis," Occasional Paper Series 225, European Central Bank.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Carluccio, Juan & Gautier, Erwan & Guilloux-Nefussi, Sophie, 2023. "Dissecting the impact of imports from low-wage countries on inflation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    2. John Lewis & Jumana Saleheen, 2018. "Tailwinds from the East: how has the rising share of imports from emerging markets affected import prices?," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 42(5), pages 1343-1365.
    3. Auer, Raphael A. & Degen, Kathrin & Fischer, Andreas M., 2013. "Low-wage import competition, inflationary pressure, and industry dynamics in Europe," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 141-166.
    4. Matteo Bugamelli & Silvia Fabiani & Enrico Sette, 2015. "The Age of the Dragon: The Effect of Imports from China on Firm‐Level Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(6), pages 1091-1118, September.
    5. Raphael Auer & Kathrin Degen & Andreas M. Fischer, 2010. "Globalization and inflation in Europe," Globalization Institute Working Papers 65, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    6. Tiago Pereira, 2016. "The effect of developing countries' competition on regional labour markets in Portugal," GEE Papers 0058, Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia, revised Mar 2016.
    7. Duc Anh Dang, 2017. "The effects of Chinese import penetration on firm innovation: Evidence from the Vietnamese manufacturing sector," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2017-77, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    8. Matteo Bugamelli & Silvia Fabiani & Enrico Sette, "undated". "The age of the dragon: Chinese competition and the pricing behavior of the Italian firms," Working Papers 4, Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance.
    9. Auer, Raphael & Fischer, Andreas M., 2010. "The effect of low-wage import competition on U.S. inflationary pressure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(4), pages 491-503, May.
    10. Ciani, Andrea & Mau, Karsten, 2023. "Delivery times in international competition: An empirical investigation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    11. Raphael A. Auer, 2015. "Exchange Rate Pass‐Through, Domestic Competition, and Inflation: Evidence from the 2005–08 Revaluation of the Renminbi," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(8), pages 1617-1650, December.
    12. Auer, Raphael A., 2015. "Human capital and the dynamic effects of trade," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 107-118.
    13. Italo Colantone & Kristien Coucke & Leo Sleuwaegen, 2015. "Low-cost import competition and firm exit: evidence from the EU," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 24(1), pages 131-161.
    14. Nils Herger, 2015. "An uncovered interest parity condition that worked - The continental investment demand for London bills of exchange during the gold standard (1880 -1914)," Working Papers 15.04, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
    15. Akira Sasahara, 2022. "The Empirics of the China Trade Shock: A Summary of Estimation Methods and A Literature Review," Keio-IES Discussion Paper Series 2022-008, Institute for Economics Studies, Keio University.
    16. Stefano Federico, 2014. "Industry Dynamics and Competition from Low-Wage Countries: Evidence on Italy," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 76(3), pages 389-410, June.
    17. Iacovone, Leonardo & Rauch, Ferdinand & Winters, L. Alan, 2013. "Trade as an engine of creative destruction: Mexican experience with Chinese competition," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 379-392.
    18. Egger, Peter H. & Kaynak, Pinar & Zoller-Rydzek, Benedikt, 2020. "Indirect effects of trade shocks on Turkish local labor markets," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    19. Ciani, Andrea & Mau, Karsten, 2020. "When Time Matters: Eastern Europe's Response to Chinese Competition," Research Memorandum 007, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
    20. Christian Dreger & Malte Rieth & David Pothier, 2015. "Is Globalization Reducing the Ability of Central Banks to Control Inflation? In-Depth Analysis," DIW Berlin: Politikberatung kompakt, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, volume 106, number pbk106.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:672. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Michael brassart (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bdfgvfr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.